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What Makes a Climate Model ‘Good Enough’? Scientists Explain

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Big Models, Big Code

Climate models like ICON, developed by Max Planck scientists, are massive software systems with over a million lines of code, making small errors almost unavoidable.

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Trust Despite Bugs

Bugs (mistakes in code) can appear even after careful testing, but models are still considered trustworthy if they give reliable results overall.

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Testing Has Limits

Scientists at Max Planck say most bugs are caught before new code is added, but testing usually stops once it’s part of the full model.

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Not Every Crash Means Trouble

Even when the model crashes, it doesn't always mean a bug needs fixing, sometimes it's just pushed beyond what it was built to handle.

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To Fix or Not to Fix?

Fixing bugs can take a lot of time, so scientists often weigh how much the bug actually affects the model before deciding to fix it.

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Bug Fixing Is Science Too

Some scientists see bug fixing as part of climate science, like solving a puzzle to figure out how a bug impacts model behaviour.

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Helpful Tools, Real Challenges

To catch bugs early, tools like Buildbot and GitLab can help, but even with testing, scientists often can’t tell exactly what the “perfect” model result should be.

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‘Good Enough’ Still Works

ICON may not be flawless, but scientists believe it's “good enough” to predict weather and study how rising carbon levels impact Earth.

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Understand the Limits

The idea of a model being 'good enough' helps scientists move forward, but users must still understand that no model is perfect.

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Models Shape Policy

The study, published in Earth’s Future, reminds us that while climate models guide global policy, their limitations must be clearly understood.

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Source:

Read more at Phys.org. Research published in Earth's Future.

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