India's R-value reduces to 1.57, current COVID wave likely to peak by February 6, suggests IIT analysis
The R-value indicates the number of persons to whom an infected person can spread the disease. If this value falls below one, the epidemic is believed to be over.
FollowAccording to preliminary research by IIT Madras, India's R-value, which reflects the pace of coronavirus transmission, fell further to 1.57 in the week of January 14-21, and the national peak of the third wave of infection is predicted in the following week. The R-value indicates the number of persons to whom an infected person can spread the disease. If this value falls below one, the epidemic is believed to be over. According to the study given with PTI by IIT Madras, the R-value was 1.57 between January 14 and January 21. The figure was 2.2 for the week of January 7-13, compared to 4 for the week of January 1-6 and 2.9 for December 25-31.
IIT Madras' Department of Mathematics and Centre of Excellence for Computer Mathematics and Data Science, led by Prof Neelesh S Upadhye and Prof S Sundar, performed preliminary investigation using computational modelling.
According to the statistics, Mumbai had an R-value of 0.67, Delhi had an R-value of 0.98, Chennai had an R-value of 1.2, and Kolkata had an R-value of 0.56. Dr Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, went on to say that the R-value of Mumbai and Kolkata suggests that the peak has passed and it is becoming endemic. However, it is still near to one in Delhi and Chennai.
"The reason for that might be because, under the current ICMR standards, the requirement for contact tracing has been abolished, and so there are fewer illnesses than before," he told PTI. The apex health agency, the ICMR, has released guidelines stating that contacts of coronavirus patients do not need to be tested unless they are recognised as high-risk due to age or comorbidities. Jha went on to say that, based on their data, the coronavirus peak is anticipated to occur during the next 14 days, till February 6. The peak of the third wave was predicted to occur between February 1 and February 15.
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