We Asked Retail How Natural Gas Will Perform In Q1: 70% Bet ‘Strong Rally’ On Cold Weather

U.S. natural gas futures surged over 9% on Monday as the eastern part of the country was hit by winter storms, reportedly leading to a decline in output as some oil and gas wells and pipes began to freeze.

Futures maturing in February were trading at $3.659 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 2:21 p.m. ET on Monday.

The price movement aligns with projections made by most retail investors on Stocktwits. A recent poll on the platform shows that 70% of participants believe natural gas will witness a strong rally in the first quarter of 2025 due to colder weather.

A significant rally in natural gas prices came at the end of 2024 when U.S. natural gas futures maturing in February rose as high as 20% after the weather outlook for January estimated colder-than-average temperatures, boosting demand for the commodity used for power generation.

An updated outlook released by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 said January's temperature forecast has trended colder in the East.

“For the month as a whole, most of the East is expected to have temperatures colder-than-average, from Florida to Maine and parts of the Great Lakes,” it said.

Notably, the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG), an exchange-traded security designed to track the daily price movements of natural gas, has gained over 26% in the past month.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment surrounding the ETF trended in the ‘bullish’ territory (65/100) from ‘neutral’ a day ago.

UNG’s Sentiment Meter and Message Volume as of 1:32 p.m. ET on Jan. 6, 2025 | Source: Stocktwits

Most retail chatter on the feed indicates optimism about the commodity’s prospects in the near term.

UNG has lost over 29% over the last year.

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