Tesla Stock Drops Below $400 Following Q4 Deliveries, Production Misses: Retail Turns Negative

Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla, Inc. ($TSLA) reported fourth-quarter deliveries that trailed the consensus estimate and production declined from the prior-year periods.

Fourth-quarter deliveries were 495,570 units, compared to the consensus estimate of 506,763 units, according to data shared by prominent Tesla forecaster TroyTeslike on X.

In a note released last week, UBS analyst Joseph Spak said that buy-side estimates ranged between 500,000 and 510,000 units. 

TroyTeslike’s estimates were for 501,000 deliveries.

Nevertheless, Tesla’s fourth-quarter performance marked year-over-year (YoY) and quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increases of 2.17% and 7.06%, respectively.

The vehicle-wise breakup showed Model 3/Y sales at 471,930 units and other vehicles at 23,640 units. The latter included high-end Model S and X vehicles as well as Cybertrucks.

Among its Chinese rivals, BYD Co. Ltd. ($BYDDY) ($BYDDF) reported fourth-quarter battery EV sales of 595,413 units.  

Nio, Inc. ($NIO O) said its fourth-quarter sales climbed 45.2% YoY to 72,689 EVs and XPeng, Inc.’s ($XPEV) quarterly sales rose 52% to 91.507 units, exceeding the higher end of the guidance. 

Tesla reported overall fourth-quarter production of 459,000 units compared to TroyTeslike’s 460,705 estimate. This compares to the year-ago and previous quarter numbers of 494,989 and 469,796 units, respectively.

Sell-side analysts see the delivery release as a non-event for Tesla stock, given the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven narrative surrounding it. 

The company’s full self-driving is expected to graduate to “unsupervised” status this year, potentially widening its adoption and bringing in a high-margin recurring revenue stream.

Tesla has other businesses that contribute to the sum-of-the-moving parts, with its energy a solid contributor. The company’s Optimus humanoid robot in the works is expected to contribute significantly to the top line when it begins commercialization. 

The next major stock-moving catalyst is the company’s quarterly results. The Elon Musk-led company has scheduled its fourth-quarter earnings for Jan. 29, 2025. 

Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.76 and revenue of $27.37 billion.

TSLA sentiment and message volume January 2, 2025, premarket as of 9:26 am ET | Source: Stocktwits

On Stocktwits, sentiment toward Tesla stock turned 'bearish’ (53/100) from 'neutral' a day ago, with message volume at ‘normal’ levels.

Tesla stock ended 2024 up 62.5%, thanks to the back-end loaded gains achieved after Donald Trump’s reelection.

In pre-market trading, the stock was down 4.03% at $387.67 as of 9:26 a.m. ET. 

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