Tesla Analyst Says Q4 Deliveries Likely To Slightly Undershoot Wall Street’s Target: Retail Stays Neutral On Stock

The high-flying Tesla, Inc. ($TSLA) shares face a key test as the Elon Musk-led electric vehicle (EV) maker is scheduled to report its fourth quarter deliveries this week. 

Tesla shares have gained a whopping 74% this year—a nice comeback after being an underperformer among the mega-caps for much of the year.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak expects Tesla to report quarterly deliveries of 510,000 units, 1% below the consensus estimate of 512,000, TheFly reported. The year-ago and previous quarters' numbers are 484,507 and 462,890 units, respectively. Citing investor conversations, the analyst said buy-side expectations are in the range of 500,000-510,000 units.

Spak does not expect the light fourth-quarter number to meaningfully impact the stock due to the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven narrative on the stock. 

UBS has a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock and $226 price target. 

Troy Teslike, a Tesla forecaster, said in a post on X that he expects Tesla to have sold fewer EVs in the U.S. in 2024 due to waning demand. He added that the company’s China sales are expected to surpass the U.S. sales for the first time.

Last week, Barclays said it expects fourth-quarter deliveries of 515,000 units. The firm said a beat could keep the stock’s narrative momentum strong, but investors' focus on the company’s fundamentals is limited. According to the firm, the spotlight is on Tesla’s autonomous vehicle and AI push ahead of the anticipated launch of the ‘’unsupervised full self-driving’’ in 2025. 

Barclays has an ‘Equal-weight’ rating and a $270 price target for the stock. 

TheFly also reported that GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson, who is bearish on Tesla, estimates deliveries of 493,215 units for the quarter.

Tesla stock hit an all-time high of $465.33 intraday on Thursday before pulling back to $454.13. The stock fell nearly 5% on Friday to close at $431.66.

A Stocktwits poll that garnered 8,100 votes showed that 62% of the respondents expected Tesla stock to end above $450.

Sentiment toward Tesla stock remains ‘neutral’ (49/100) and message value is at a ‘low’ level.

TSLA sentiment and message volume December 30, 2024, as of 3:23 am ET | Source: Stocktwits

A Tesla watcher on the Stocktwits platform said the stock could be headed toward $350s next week.

But another said they took advantage of the dip.

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