NIO Stock Rises Despite Q3 Earnings Miss: Retail Bullish On Firefly Launch, Future Outlook

U.S.-listed shares of NIO Inc. ($NIO) gained nearly 3% in early morning trading on Wednesday, recovering from steep losses at the open, after the Chinese electric-vehicle maker reported quarterly earnings that fell short of estimates and provided weaker guidance for the next quarter.

The company reported a third-quarter loss of $0.30 per share, bigger than Wall Street’s forecast of a $0.27 loss per share. 

Net losses expanded to $710 million, compared to $640 million in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.58 billion, falling short of the $2.64 billion analysts had expected.

For the fourth quarter, NIO projects revenue growth of approximately 17% to $2.9 billion, below Wall Street’s estimate of nearly $3.2 billion.

On the earnings call, CFO Stanley Qu said, “We target to double our delivery volume [in 2025].” 

CEO William Li added that the company aims to accelerate its international expansion next year, bolstered by products from its ONVO cars and newly launched Firefly line.

The earnings miss and cautious guidance come as NIO faces intensifying competition in the EV market and ongoing cost pressures.

NIO Inc. Sentiment and Message Volume on Nov 20 as of 10:30 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits has shifted dramatically, climbing to ‘extremely bullish’ (90/100) from ‘bearish’ just a day earlier, the highest so far this year. Message volume also spiked to ‘extremely high.’

The optimism appears to be driven by user confidence in the company’s cash flow stability. 

“Inside of the company, we actually started a project called cost mining to identify waste, improve the cost structure, and reduce costs across all aspects,” Qu said during the earnings call.

NIO ended September 2024 with a cash position of $6 million alongside $1.6 million in debt, which many retail investors view as a reassuring sign amid its ongoing challenges.

The company delivered 20,976 vehicles in October 2024, reflecting its ongoing efforts to scale production.

NIO also announced that its third brand, Firefly, will officially launch on December 21 at Nio Day 2024. Deliveries of Firefly’s first model are slated to begin in the first half of 2025.

“While the ONVO brand continues to ramp up production capacity, the company's total deliveries in Q4 are expected to range between 72,000 and 75,000 units,” CEO William Li said.

If not profitability, retail investors on Stocktwits believe the company’s ONVO and Firefly brands will drive NIO’s recovery in the coming year, according to a poll on the platform.

Stocktwits Poll on NIO's recovery on Nov 20 as of 10:30 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

NIO stock has fallen about 49% so far this year. Lower EV prices and higher competition have weighed on investor sentiment.

($1=7.25 yuan)