Congress' Karnataka conundrum: Siddaramaiah pushes, Shivakumar waits - is December shift coming?

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s push for a cabinet reshuffle and a change in the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) leadership appears to have hit a roadblock. Despite efforts by Siddaramaiah and a few of his close ministers to persuade the Congress High Command to drop 7 to 8 ministers and restructure the cabinet, the proposal has reportedly been turned down by Rahul Gandhi.

On Thursday morning, Siddaramaiah, accompanied by ministers Santosh Lad and M.B. Patil, arrived at 10 Janpath at exactly 10 a.m. However, only Siddaramaiah was called in for the meeting with Rahul Gandhi. When he emerged at 11:30 a.m., the optimism he had entered with seemed to have faded. Sources say Rahul not only rejected the demand for a cabinet reshuffle but also refrained from giving any assurance on appointing a new KPCC president.

What does “end of the year” mean?

By November 2025, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's government will complete two and a half years in office, overtaking Devaraj Urs in terms of tenure. Around that time, Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar is said to be eyeing the top post. He has reportedly conveyed to Congress leaders in Delhi that he should be made Chief Minister once that milestone is reached. Shivakumar has been regularly meeting Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi—reportedly every 15 days—reminding them of the leadership promise made to him.

Meanwhile, Siddaramaiah and his camp believe that a cabinet reshuffle now, backed by pressure on the High Command, would put an end to leadership change speculation later this year—effectively ensuring him another year of uninterrupted power. However, the Congress High Command has reportedly responded with a firm “Let’s wait until December,” a message that has left the Siddaramaiah faction disappointed.

Jarkiholi vs Kharge faction

Last month, when K.C. Venugopal told D.K. Shivakumar he should remain KPCC President until the Zilla Panchayat elections were over, Shivakumar responded, “Make me CM as promised, then appoint whoever you want as President. For now, stay quiet.” Learning of this, Siddaramaiah immediately sent Satish Jarkiholi to Delhi with a message: “I will take care of Zilla Panchayat election expenses. Make me KPCC president now, and I’ll take responsibility for 2028 elections.”

Even then, the High Command did not respond.

At that point, D.K. Shivakumar sent Eshwar Khandre to Delhi and proposed, “If the new president must be appointed now, then give it to me, a Lingayat. The CM is a Kuruba (OBC), Deputy CM is a Vokkaliga, and AICC President is a Dalit. So, as a Lingayat, I should be KPCC President.”

In essence, Khandre was brought in by Shivakumar to counter Jarkiholi in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region. The underlying strategy was that Khandre, also a Lingayat, would be a tough opponent for Jarkiholi—something Mallikarjun Kharge would also find difficult to oppose. But the High Command has told both camps: “Let the AICC session finish, then we’ll see.” According to sources, the High Command prefers both the cabinet reshuffle and new KPCC president appointment to happen at the same time.

So will leadership change happen at the same time?

That’s the big question, and the answer will decide the political fate of the state. From 2013 to 2018, when Siddaramaiah was CM for the first time, the Delhi High Command would agree to everything he said. Neither Kharge nor G. Parameshwara had the mindset to demand otherwise. But in 2023, since coming to power again, it’s D.K. Shivakumar whose word carries more weight with Delhi leaders.

For instance:
    •    When Shivakumar asked for the format of the Hassan convention to be changed, Venugopal promptly issued instructions.
    •    When Parameshwara planned a Dalit MLAs’ meeting at his house, D.K. went to Delhi and Randeep Surjewala sent a public letter canceling the meeting.
    •    When the CM was ready to bring the caste census to the cabinet, one word from D.K. made Delhi leaders say “No.”
    •    When Minister Rajanna raised the “honeytrap” issue in the Assembly, both Venugopal and Surjewala scolded him for harming the party’s image.

Now, even though Siddaramaiah, Jarkiholi, Rajanna, and Santosh Lad are united in pushing for cabinet reshuffle and KPCC change, Delhi leaders delaying things till year-end shows how much Gandhi family is influenced by D.K.’s terms—fueling curiosity about whether they will go all the way and support leadership change too.

What might happen?

Unlike Sachin Pilot, who may or may not have learned from Ashok Gehlot not stepping down, D.K. Shivakumar had already planned ahead. After the 2023 election results, he went to Delhi knowing he wouldn’t be made CM immediately. So when Venugopal and Surjewala pressured him, he resisted. Eventually, Sonia and Priyanka Gandhi, through a FaceTime video call from Shimla, assured him that he would be made CM after two and a half years. Only then did D.K. Shivakumar agree to Siddaramaiah becoming CM.

That’s why now, everything D.K. says is met with “OK” from Delhi leaders. Additionally, Sonia Gandhi is said to have a soft corner for him, seeing him as someone who went to jail for her.

But removing a mass leader like Siddaramaiah from power is something that worries the Gandhi family. History shows that whenever mass leaders like Devaraj Urs, Veerendra Patil, Bangarappa, or Yediyurappa were removed from power, the ruling party faced crushing defeat in the next elections.

That is the High Command’s biggest dilemma.