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Madhya Pradesh Election 2023: Exit Polls show BJP, Congress in nail-biting contest

Madhya Pradesh Exit Polls 2023: The battle lines are drawn primarily between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, while other influential players include the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Communist Party of India (Marxist).

Madhya Pradesh Election Exit Poll 2023: Kamal Nath Congress Shivraj Singh Chouhan BJP AJR
Author
First Published Nov 30, 2023, 5:53 PM IST

The exit polls that took place on Thursday (November 30) indicate a fiercely contested battle in Madhya Pradesh, projecting close margins between the BJP and the Congress. Survey agencies predicted that the BJP is likely to win 100-123 seats, while the Congress is estimated to secure 102-125 seats. Specifically, TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat suggests a potential win of 106-116 seats for the BJP and 111-121 seats for the Congress.

Madhya Pradesh Election Exit Poll 2023: Kamal Nath Congress Shivraj Singh Chouhan BJP AJR

Republic TV:

BJP: 118- 130 
Congress: 97-107
Others: 2

TV9 Bharatvarsh, Pollstrat

BJP: 106-116
Congress: 111-121

CNN-News 18

Congress: 113
BJP: 112
Others: 5

Jan Ki Baat

Cong: 100-123
BJP: 102-125
Others: 5

PMARQ

BJP: 103 -122
Congress: 103 - 122
Others: 3 - 8

Dainik Bhaskar 

BJP: 95-115
Congress: 105-120

Key candidates in the race:

The electoral fray features prominent figures like Kamal Nath, Vikram Mastal, and Govind Singh representing the Congress, and Kailash Vijayvargiya, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Narottam Mishra, and Ambrish Sharma from the BJP.

The dynamics of 2018 and 2023 Madhya Pradesh Elections: 
Madhya Pradesh boasts 230 assembly segments and achieved a voter turnout of 77.15%, marking a significant rise from the 2018 polls at 75.63%. In 2018, the Congress secured victory, marking its first win in the state since 2003. However, Jyotiraditya Scindia's shift to the BJP in March 2020 toppled the Kamal Nath-led Congress government, ushering in Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the chief minister for the fourth term.

What is an Exit Poll?

Exit polls serve as an attempt by survey agencies to predict election outcomes. By querying voters after they leave polling stations, these polls endeavor to ascertain the chosen candidate. Unlike opinion polls conducted before elections, exit polls gather post-voting preferences.

How reliable are Exit Polls?

The history of exit polls is fraught with instances of inaccuracy. Factors such as discrepancies in voter responses, differences between agencies, or respondents providing false information contribute to potential inaccuracies. Yet, at times, exit polls do align with the actual election results, offering a glimpse into potential outcomes. However, the anticipated results could still deviate from the projected seat tallies, adding an element of uncertainty.

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