La Nina to prevail; rainfall expected to be mostly uniformly distributed in April: IMD
“Normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern parts of Peninsular India and adjoining Central India, over foothills of Himalayas and some parts of Northwest India,” said IMD.
FollowThe India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the prevailing La Nina conditions, though in a weak phase, will continue during the upcoming months over the equatorial Pacific region. This was stated in the latest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin for April issued by the IMD.
“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA with model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm,” IMD said in a statement on Thursday.
IMD said that rainfall is expected to be mostly uniformly distributed. “Normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern parts of Peninsular India and adjoining Central India, over foothills of Himalayas and some parts of Northwest India,” said IMD.
According to IMD, below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of Northeast India, some areas of Northwest India and southern parts of the South Peninsula. White shaded areas within the land area represent climatological probabilities.
The forecast is based on the March initial conditions provided to the high-resolution Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) model.
This may be a good sign, at least for the beginning phase, for the summer monsoon in June over India. The IMD is set to release the first stage Long Range Forecast for the 2022 monsoon on Thursday.
ENSO conditions comprise El Nino and La Nina, ocean phenomena, that indicate abnormal heating and cooling, respectively, of the sea surfaces along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO is one of the most important factors influencing the monsoons and temperatures, globally.
According to the April ENSO bulletin, the north Indian Ocean, especially the north Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, remained warm. Such warming almost led to the formation of a cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal in March. But the storm, ultimately, did not develop. Usually, the oceans are not warm enough to churn cyclonic storms in March over the north Indian Ocean.
In its forecast, the IMD has said, “The normal sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail over most parts of the Indian Ocean during April. However, the western Indian Ocean is likely to remain slightly cooler than the eastern Indian Ocean for the next couple of seasons.” The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is the ENSO counterpart in the Indian Ocean, could turn negative during the coming months, the IMD said.
“At present, neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. The forecast indicates that the negative IOD conditions are likely to develop starting from April to June,” the IMD said.
The negative phase of the IOD is generally known to not favour the summer monsoon.
