Gujarat Election 2022: Caste dynamics could be the decider, reveals Asianet News survey
According to the Asianet News-Cfore pre-poll survey, with Naresh Patel declining to lead Congress and Hardik Patel joining BJP, the Patel vote base of Congress has significantly been dented.
FollowCaste and faith dynamics could play a critical role in deciding the winner in the upcoming assembly election in Gujarat, revealed a survey commissioned by Asianet News Network and conducted by Cfore.
The survey, which took the opinion of 1,82,557 voters across 182 assembly constituencies using a systematic sampling methodology, revealed that with Naresh Patel declining to lead Congress and Hardik Patel joining BJP, the Patel vote base of Congress has significantly been dented. This vote has shifted to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The pre-poll survey also stated that Dalits, tribals, Thakores and Muslims are highly dissatisfied with the ruling BJP government. However, it added that many also don't trust Congress to address their concerns.
A deep dive into the survey data has revealed the following key highlights:
1. According to the Asianet News-Cfore survey, 47 per cent of Leuva Patel and 67 per cent of Kadva Patel would favour the BJP, while 33 per cent of Leuva Patel and 21 per cent of Kadva Patel support AAP. Only 20 per cent of Leuva Patel voters and 9 per cent of Kadva voters are expected to support the Congress.
2. Among the Brahmin community, the BJP is expected to enjoy maximum support, with 77 per cent of people predicted to vote for the ruling party. 17 per cent of Brahmin voters are likely to favour the AAP, while only 5 per cent of voters from this community will vote for Congress.
3. BJP is also a hit among the Koli community, with 38 per cent set to vote for the ruling party in the upcoming election. Congress follows second with 31 per cent, while 24 per cent of Koli voters could support AAP.
4. The Congress is, however, the preferred party among the Scheduled Tribes (Mina, Dubla, Naikda, Bhil) and Dalits. 36 per cent of respondents belonging to the tribal community and 57 per cent of Dalits favoured the Grand Old Party. 34 per cent and 18 per cent of those surveyed from the tribal community revealed they would vote for BJP and AAP, respectively. As for the Dalit community, only 13 per cent of the voters stated they would vote for BJP, while 26 per cent favoured the Kejriwal-led party.
5. Congress remains a favoured party of the Muslims, with 67 per cent of those belonging to this faith showing support for the party. AAP came a close second, with 32 per cent of respondents from the Muslim community favouring them. Only 2 per cent of Muslims are in support of the ruling BJP.
6. According to the Asianet News-Cfore survey, 50 per cent of Rabaris favoured the ruling BJP. In comparison, 27 per cent and 18 per cent of voters from this community opted to support Congress and AAP, respectively. BJP also was a hit among the Kshatriya/Thakore and Darbar caste, with 37 per cent of voters belonging to this community supporting the ruling party. Congress is a close second with 36 per cent, while AAP could attract the support of 24 per cent of the votes from these castes.
7. The Rajputs have backed the ruling BJP by a significant margin. 70 per cent of voters belonging to this caste could vote for the saffron party. Congress and AAP have garnered only 12 and 16 per cent support from those belonging to this community. Meanwhile, a similar story is seen among the Jains. 76 per cent of Jains favour BJP, while only 13 and 9 per cent of those hailing from this community support the Congress and AAP, respectively. The BJP is also a hit among the Bharwads, Gurjars, Banias, Kharwas/Machi-Karwas and OBCs.
8. The Asianet News-Cfore survey has also revealed that 47 per cent of men and 49 per cent of women in Gujarat want the BJP to return to power for the seventh time. Meanwhile, 30 per cent of men and 32 per cent of women favour Congress to form the government. 17 per cent of men and 15 per cent of women are eyeing for AAP to take power in the state.
9. One interesting facet of the survey is that the ruling BJP is a hit among both the elderly and youth of Gujarat. 46 per cent of the youth between 18 to 25 years, 49 per cent of those between 26 to 35 years, 47 per cent of people between 36 to 50 years and 50 per cent of those above the age of 50 want BJP to form the government at the state once again.
10. As per the Asianet News-Cfore survey, 49 per cent of the respondents, who have studied up to 12, and 47 per cent of those who have completed their graduation or above, want BJP to govern the state again.
The pre-poll survey has also predicted Bhupendra Patel will return as chief minister of Gujarat, with 34 per cent of respondents favouring the BJP leader. 4 per cent of people want to see Hardik Patel on the CM's chair.
While the survey has predicted the BJP's victory with a thumping majority in the upcoming state election for a record seventh time with 48 per cent vote share, a lot will depend on which party fulfils the voters' wishes. People want jobs to be created and inflation down, and traders want GST rates reduced, and EMIs reduced. Low-income earners want electricity up to 300 units free and quality education in government schools.
As per Asianet News-Cfore pre-poll survey, if the Gujarat election takes place now, BJP is projected to return to power in the 182-member assembly with 133 to 143 seats, while the Congress and AAP could secure around 28 to 37 and 5 to 14 seats, respectively.
Also read: Here's what EC said when questioned on not announcing Gujarat election dates
