Champions League: Pep Guardiola believes only '1%' chance for Man City to defeat Real Madrid; Here's why

Pep Guardiola-led Manchester City side suffered a 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid in their home leg of Champions League knockout playoffs.

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Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is of the opinion that his side's chances of defeating Real Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League knockout playoffs is very slim. The two sides will face each other again for the decisive second leg at Real Madrid’s home ground Santiago Bernabeu on February 19. 

Pep Guardiola’s side suffered a 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid in their home leg of Champions League knockout playoffs. Manchester City were leading 2-1 until the 86th minute when Real Madrid star Brahim Diaz scored an equalizer. Then, Jude Bellingham netted a winning goal in the last minute to ensure that Real Madrid secure a crucial away win before the Champions League.

Manchester City have an arduous task at hand to overcome a 2-3 deficit against 14-time Champions League winners at Santiago Bernabeu, where they won only one in five matches. Their only win at the Bernabeu came in 2020, when Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus helped them beat Real Madrid 2-1 in the first leg of Round of 16.

Speaking after Manchester City’s 4-0 win against Newcastle United, Pep Guardiola believes that his side’s progression to the Champions League is very minimal, admitting the team’s poor performances and results this season. 

“Of course this victory helps us, but the margin to win at the Bernabeu from that position, everybody knows the percentage to go through is 1% - or I don't know what, but it will be minimal.” the 54-year-old said. 

"We will try, that's for sure. We are going like we always have done but, this season, the reality is we have been miles away. We have been really, really poor in performances and results this season.” he added.

Pep Guardiola's statement was on the back of another setback for Manchester City injury setback as Erling Haaland suffered an injury during the side’s win against Newcastle United. Haaland appeared to have injured his knee late in the team’s victory. The Norwegian has been a crucial player for Manchester City since his joining in 2022 and in case he remains absent from the City’s crucial clash against Real Madrid, then it would be a big blow for the side. Meanwhile, Ruben Dias and Jack Grealish did not play against Newcastle United as the former were given rest after playing a full 90 minutes against Real Madrid, while the latter suffered a hip injury during City’s home leg defeat.

However, Pep Guardiola identified a player who can help Manchester City improve their one percent chances against Real Madrid, Manchester City boss believes Nico Gonzalez vital contributions in the midfield had helped his teammates to score crucial goals against Newcastle United. 

“Absolutely, yeah, absolutely. "You tell me why do they play good? For many reasons, it's not just because of Marmoush. The highlights, he deserves it

“It's because Nico was there, and Nico, because maybe [Abdukodir] Khusanov was there, or maybe the best John [Stones] was there or the passes from Eddie [Ederson].” Guardiola said.

Manchester City are inconsistent throughout this season. The Blues were on the verge of getting knocked out from the league stage of the Champions League after a 2-4 defeat against Paris Saint Germain. However, the 2022 Champions League winners managed to make it to the knockout stage with a 3-1 win against Club Brugge. In the league stage, Manchester City finished 22nd in the league stage and qualified as one of the unseeded teams for the knockout playoffs.

At Premier League, Manchester City's chances of defending their title and extending their record to five consecutive titles seemed to be slipping away as they are currently fourth at the points table with 44 points, 16 points adrift of table toppers. Even If City wins the remaining 13 matches and earns 3 points in each game, they will finish with 83 points, which might not be enough to overtake current leaders of the Premier League table points.