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Overall enrolment in schools will decline by over 14pc by 2025: Study

The study by Educational Survey Division (ESD) of NCERT said the enrolment of scheduled caste students would remain unchanged for the next 510 years, while the number of students from scheduled tribe will face stagnation after 2023-24,

Overall enrolment in schools will decline by over 14pc by 2025 Study gcw
First Published Sep 2, 2022, 7:15 PM IST

The overall enrolment in schools will have declined by more than 14 per cent by 2025, beginning from 2011, with the enrolment of girls expected to decline by over 2 per cent more than that of boys, an NCERT study has projected. According to the analysis of NCERT's Educational Survey Division (ESD), enrollment for scheduled caste students would stay constant for the next 510 years but enrollment for scheduled tribal students will stagnate after 2023–2024.

According to the study, enrollment is a function of population, therefore a reduction in the number of children between the ages of 6 and 11 and between 11 and 16 is reflected in enrollment at each stage. The National Achievement Survey (NAS), performed by the NCERT, and data from the yearly Unified District Information System for Education (UDISE), have both been used in the study Projection and Trends of School Enrolment by 2025.

According to the study, there is a significant amount of variation in the data of the North Eastern states, and certain numbers are not accessible. The study took into account NAS reports from 21 states with populations more than 5 million in the 2011 Population Census of India.

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It said, "Up to the year 2011, the primary stage enrollment rise persisted. After 2011, enrollment started to fall, and it will continue to do so until 2025." According to the study report, overall enrollment would decline by 14.37% between 2011 and 2025, while enrollment for boys and girls will decline by 13.28% and 15.54%, respectively.

"At the upper primary level, enrollment for both boys and girls as well as the overall proportion began to fall from 2016 onward. Enrollment fell over this time by 9.47% overall, 8.07% for males, and 10.94% for all students (girls)," it added.

Similar declines in enrollment were seen at the secondary level as well, however here they reportedly began in 2020. The pattern of declining school enrollment in the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes was strikingly comparable to that of India. 

The enrolment of scheduled caste students was predicted to stagnate after 2020–21 for the following 510 years, whereas that of scheduled tribe students was predicted to stagnate after 2023–24.  The NCERT report has studied trends since 1950, when the country had 2,171 schools with 2.38 crore students. The study is an outcome of the PAC programme's objective of projecting the school enrolment in the country from 2016-2025.

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According to Indrani Bhaduri, the head of the survey section at the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT), it will assist in determining potential trends in school enrollment for boys and girls as well as the socially underprivileged groups across all the states and UTs in the nation. She said that the analysis can provide information and assist the government in formulating future educational programmes.

(WIth PTI Inputs)

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