Winning Both Houses Was the Easy Part; Governing Against Trump Is the Real Test

Democrats could squander their power on what their base wants most: a third impeachment of Donald Trump, the formal House charge of serious wrongdoing he has twice faced already. Seven new proposals have surfaced this term. The latest failed a vote on whether to debate it, yet 70 per cent of House Democrats backed it, while Hakeem Jeffries, the party's House leader, voted "present". Jamie Raskin, the Democrat who will chair the House Judiciary Committee, keeps citing the arithmetic. The House only charges; two-thirds of the Senate must then convict, unthinkable today. Pursuing it could cost moderate Democrats in competitive districts their seats in 2028, so Jeffries would rather target cabinet members.

Pete Hegseth, the unpopular Defence Secretary who now carries the title Secretary of War, could be impeached for waging the ongoing war with Iran without Congressional approval and for ordering suspected drug traffickers killed without trial. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Health Secretary presiding over the worst measles outbreak in 35 years, is another.

The caution is arithmetic. On January 3, Democrats take control of both houses with at least 250 of the House's seats and 54 of the Senate's 100. A thumping win, yet short of a veto-proof majority: a president can refuse to sign a bill, and overriding that refusal needs 290 House and 67 Senate votes. Big new laws are therefore unlikely. Smaller bargains are possible where Trump's instincts overlap, such as capping medicine prices.

For two years the party could only write stern letters, which Trump and his circle ignored. A minority cannot hold hearings, issue subpoenas (legal orders compelling testimony or documents) or move bills. Those tools now return, along with two campaign promises: easing household budgets and restraining Trump. Deliver, and the White House may be winnable in 2028; fail, and Republicans could roar back.

Jeffries's first task is restoring the money Republicans cut from Medicaid, the health scheme for the poor, and reviving subsidies that help people afford insurance under Obamacare. Democrats also want the Iran war ended and Trump's tariffs scrapped. These import taxes, they argue, have pushed up everyday prices, and dearer imported goods on shop shelves bear that out. The proposed "End Trump's Tariff Tax Act" would lift duties on Canadian imports and repeal laws Trump cites to justify his trade war. Even stalled bills signal priorities.

Money is the real leverage. Government funding expires December 11, but nobody expects a shutdown, where services stop for lack of approved spending; Democrats won't start that way. Expect a short extension until February or March, then a full budget for the rest of the financial year. There, shrewd bargaining with a willing president could win concessions on healthcare and tariffs. But Republicans have already protected funding for the costly deportation drive until Trump's term ends, and Trump keeps seeking legal routes to keep tariffs without Congress.

On Iran, cutting off war money would need Republican help to clear the filibuster, a Senate rule letting a minority stall a bill unless 60 senators vote to proceed. Democrats themselves are split on going that far. Damian Murphy, a former Congressional aide now at the Centre for American Progress think tank, expects funding tied instead to full disclosure of casualties and remaining weapons stocks, after a year of Pentagon silence. Democrats did the same in 2006, forcing regular Iraq war reports.

Appointments are different. Senate Democrats can block judges and senior ministers on their own, crucial if a conservative Supreme Court justice, two of whom are in their late seventies, retires before 2028. The model is 2016, when Republicans refused even a hearing to Merrick Garland, Barack Obama's nominee. Lower-court confirmations would freeze too, so Republicans will rush approvals through November and December.

Investigations will dominate. Subpoenas will probe whether Trump and his family are profiting from office, a suspicion two in three Americans share; nine in ten voters cited corruption in exit polls. Likely targets: a Pentagon loan to a manufacturer backed by Donald Trump Jr., and Gulf-state billions parked in a fund run by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and foreign envoy. Hearings on tariffs, Iran and immigration will follow. Expecting White House secrecy claims, Democrats will lean on firms that dealt with the administration; many who ignored their emails for two years now insist they were never Trump loyalists.

To look like the clean-government party, Democrats will push reforms. A ban on lawmakers trading shares could become law; the rest is mostly signalling. Raskin wants pardon brokers registered like foreign lobbyists and the aircraft Qatar gave Trump surrendered. Robert Garcia, the Democrat set to chair the Oversight Committee, would close the "Musk loophole" letting government contractors' bosses fund campaigns.

Landslides breed overconfidence, and Trump remains formidable, his base spoiling for a fight. The majority is large; the margin for error is not.