US-Iran war ends with 'advantage plus' for Iran, says MJ Akbar

Former MoS MJ Akbar states the US-Iran ceasefire has ended with Iran possessing 'advantage plus.' He notes Iran's victory is defined by lifted oil sanctions and implicit recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's 'Advantage Plus' in Ceasefire

With a ceasefire now in place between US and Iran, former MoS for External Affairs MJ Akbar, says the obvious advantage has fallen to the Iranian side. Former Union MoS for External Affairs said that the said that the war has ended with Iran possessing "advantage plus."

"In the simplest terms, the war has ended with Iran possessing what I call "advantage plus." The war began with President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asking for regime change. There has been no regime change. They then shifted their objectives basically to the Hormuz Strait and to the clear passage of oil, energy, and fuel through this passage," he said.

Economic and Strategic Gains

Akbar says that Iran's victory lies in the fact that its oil is now not sanctioned and is freely available in the international markets. "At the end of the war, apart from not being obliterated, victory for Iran is defined as not being defeated against a superpower. They have established that they have not been defeated because these terms have been negotiated by mutual agreement and not by one-sided imposition. In this mutual agreement, Iran's advantage is that its oil, which had previously been sanctioned, is now freely available to the international market. That is a very huge plus," he said.

Akbar further told ANI that Iran must be the only country which mixes oil and water to productive advantage. "On top of that, Iran must be the only country which mixes oil and water to productive advantage. Normally, it is said that oil and water don't travel together, but in this case, its oil supplies and its domination over the Hormuz Strait, which has been implicitly recognized now, makes it into a very major power--not only in this region but across the world. Some 40% of the world's energy requirements and vital necessities of the world's economy flow through this point. It was estimated that last year some $600 billion worth of the world's requirements went through this," he said.

Hormuz Strait Toll Proposal

Akbar said that Iran has been prudent in offering to share a toll it's been planning to impose on vessels that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. "Now, if this point has not been fully negotiated, we don't know if the world or America will agree to the toll that Iran has proposed. But Iran has been clever about it; they propose to share the toll with Oman, which is on the other side of the Hormuz Strait, making it sound far more equitable. If this comes to pass, then Iran is looking at ten years of unprecedented national income from oil lifted from sanctions and from the toll," he said.

A New Regional Power

With the terms of ceasefire loaded in its favour, Akbar says that Iran is now going to be a very major regional power. "The security architecture of the Gulf has been smashed. The Gulf countries will now have to understand that Iran is going to be part of the equation of security. It cannot be isolated or ignored, and they may have made a mistake by not being inclusive vis-a-vis Iran in the past. An article in the New York Times recently said that Iran is now a major world power. While that headline may have been a slight exaggeration, I believe Iran is now going to be a very major regional power," he said.

Booming Defence Sector

Akbar said that Iran's defence sales are going to boom as they resisted against the US and also penetrated the Israeli Iron Dome. "Furthermore, one part of its economy which has been underestimated is the defence sector. I think Iran's defence sales are going to boom because it has shown that drones costing $25,000 or $30,000 can take on missiles worth $4 million. It has shown that its missiles, created with North Korean technology, are now among the best in the world because they have managed to destroy the Iron Dome. This is the first time since the birth of Israel that Israeli cities have been repeatedly hit and its people repeatedly affected," he said.

US Isolation and Damaged Alliances

Akbar also feels tha the US has never been as isolated as it is now because of its arbitrary behaviour. "America has an incumbent in the White House who lives by his own dramatic and coarse language, but the fact that the American institutions and the system permitted this arbitrary behavior--which had no support apart from that of Israel--means America has never been so isolated. That is something for the American system to worry about and begin the process of repairing. Losing your enemy is one thing, but losing your friend is a headline," he said.

He added that Iran and NATO are not going to forget their insults hurled by US President Donald Trump. "The Iranians also have a long memory. America's losses have not only been on the battlefield; it has lost credibility. Its alliances have been very damaged. NATO now is history; Humpty Dumpty has crashed, and you can't put it together again, however much you may try and put glue on the broken pieces. This is not simply due to the arrogance of policy and unilateralism which America exercised, but also the huge damage done by language. The Saudis are not going to forget the insult to their Crown Prince very easily. The British Prime Minister is going to remember that he was called "Neville Chamberlain," which is possibly the worst insult in the British political dictionary. Macron of France and France itself are not going to forget. That is going to remain long after these negotiations come to a conclusion," he said.

This comes after Trump suspended the "bombing and attack" campaign on Iran, announcing a two-week double-sided ceasefire and accepting the 10-point proposal from Iran. The Iranian side then accepted Trump's peace overture and agreed to safe passage via the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, as well as a pause in military operations. (ANI)

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)