From Taiwan to Ukraine: Will Rising Global Conflicts Push Us to the Brink in 2026?

As the world enters 2026, multiple conflict flashpoints — from Taiwan and Ukraine to West Asia and Africa — threaten global stability, supply chains, and energy security, with India facing mounting strategic risks.

By Dr Aparaajita Pandey: It would be wrong to say that the world is entering an era of unprecedented uncertainty. Global security environment is quite familiar with long drawn conflicts and eras of transitions, of countries on the brink of wars, and of conflicts that seem inevitable. However, the nature of warfare, players on multiple sides of the conflict, and disruption caused in global supply chains, food systems, energy markets definitively add new dimensions to global frameworks. As conflicts break the bounds of geography and the world more integrated than ever, the proverbial butterfly effect of a small seemingly insignificant event even in the domestic backdrop of a country can cause a tsunami of international political upheaval.

As one looks at the coming year, it is prudent to also speculate on the nature and number of conflicts that the world is most likely to experience. The possibility of a singular war that dominates is rather slim as several high-risk theatres have emerged across the world. East Asia, the Middle East (West Asia), Eastern Europe, and pockets of Africa have all shown a medium to high probability of conflict. The economic, political, and humanitarian cost of these conflicts have already been felt in 2025. Their reemergence and/or continuity is set to have a greater destabilising effect on the region as a whole.

Conflict Probability versus Conflict Impact

While all conflicts are devastating to humanity, it is also important to make the distinction between those that have a high probability and those that have the greatest ramifications on a global scale.

In terms of global impact, tensions surrounding Taiwan, are embedded within the broader strategic rivalry between the United States and China and would continue to be one of the most consequential especially in the Indian Ocean region. It’s important to note that an absence of a full-scale war does not translate to peace. Coercive measures such as maritime pressure, cyber operations, or partial blockades would have a direct impact on the semiconductor industry which would translate to a global supply chain disruption. For Taiwan it might mean accelerating supply-chain fragmentation and industrial nationalism, for the rest of the world, it could mean disruptions in manufacturing and services sectors which in turn has a multi-fold impact on the economy as a whole.

The Middle East or West Asia continues to be a region to watch from 2025. While the Israel- Hamas conflict continues to evolve, the conflict has also expanded to the entire region and more countries are now becoming accessories to the conflict. The skirmish between Israel and Iran earlier this year could just be a foreshadowing to a greater conflict in the coming year. As Iran tries to rebuild what was destroyed, it is not far – fetched to imagine that there would be an attempt to sabotage that rebuilding which would involve an armed conflict at a scale larger than that in 2025. A natural consequence of such instability in the region usually is blockading of critical maritime chokepoints under strain, particularly in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Energy price volatility, shipping delays, and rising insurance costs would follow quickly. It is also important to note that while India has built a network of alternative energy suppliers, China still relies heavily on the red sea for transport of a majority of its fuel supply. The global economic and political consequences of this conflict in the middle east are inevitable and as has been already noticed, the question of Israel and Palestine does have a polarising impact on the populations across the globe, one can expect greater polarisation and an augmentation of narrative building and information warfare from both sides of the Israel – Palestine issue. The amplification of regional instability and its spill over to the rest of the world, would be an issue to watch.

The war in Ukraine, while now often framed as a prolonged stalemate, continues to exert structural influence over global food, fertilizer, and energy markets. Its significance lies less in battlefield momentum than in the normalization of sanctions, counter-sanctions, and trade diversion. Over time, these mechanisms reshape economic geography, deepen bloc-based trading systems, and entrench militarisation within Europe.

Till now there has been a focus on more obvious conflicts and their overt consequences, However, conflicts also have less visible ramifications like migration flows, a huge refugee population and exodus, boosting extremist agenda, and rise in fundamentalism as well as rise in extremist recruitment. The humanitarian cost of the conflict, exploitation of women and children, and the stripping away of humanity from the victims of the conflict often do not find mention in geopolitical analyses, however, they often lay the foundation stones of new conflicts that flare up in the future. Conflicts in Sudan, the Sahel, Yemen, and eastern Congo are examples of neglected crises. Their immediate consequence might be remain confined to the region but their secondary consequences would see greater migratory pressure on Europe and an increase in fundamentalist bodies across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Implications for India and South Asia

For India and South Asia, these dynamics create a complex strategic landscape shaped by external shocks rather than direct confrontation. India remains exposed to volatility in energy prices and maritime trade routes. An escalation in the Middle East escalation would instantly affect inflation and fiscal stability, while a semiconductor interruption linked to East Asia would challenge India’s ambitions in high-technology manufacturing. Food price shocks, whether from Ukraine or climate-stressed conflict zones, carry direct domestic political implications.

Strategically, intensifying rivalry between major powers will place increasing pressure on India to align technology standards, supply chains, and security partnerships even as it seeks to preserve strategic autonomy. Instability in the extended neighbourhood, from West Asia to Afghanistan, further heightens risks associated with terrorism, maritime insecurity, and refugee movements.

This is not to mention the dispute between India and Pakistan that flared up earlier this year and the region could see a repeat of that in 2026 as well. It is also important to note that India is surrounded by neighbours that are politically unstable and such instability has a tendency to leach in through porous borders. It would be imperative for India to maintain domestic stability as well as strict border integrity so as to safeguard peace within the country.

Conclusion

It seems that 2026 is going to be a year of multiple conflicts that can a have a cumulative impact on global trade. Alliances would shift and diplomatic channels would find it difficult to keep up with the rapidly shifting national interests. A world as integrated as the one we live in offers virtually no insulation from any conflict and there is a pressing need for contingency plans.

To find substitutes and alternates for buyers, suppliers, chains of commerce, for markets and raw materials. To ensure food security, and insulate and stabilise energy supply chains, to create and perpetuate domestic stability and peace, and anticipate alienation of communities and assuage and appease where required.

(Dr Aparaajita Pandey is a Professor at Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies and an independent geopolitical analyst.)

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