Seeds of a bomb: What lies buried in Iran's nuclear sites after US, Israel bombing?

After intense US-Israel airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites, the world faces uncertainty over how much damage was done—and how close Iran still is to building a nuclear bomb.

Israel-Iran War: On June 24, Iran, Israel, and the United States agreed to stop fighting after nearly two weeks of war. During the clashes, Israel targeted many sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program. Later, the US also joined in and used powerful bombs to hit Fordow—an underground nuclear facility that Israel couldn’t easily reach—and attacked two more sites. Now that the fighting has paused, experts are trying to figure out how much damage was really done and whether these attacks were worth the risks and consequences.

It’s still too early to know exactly how much damage the attacks—called Operation Rising Lion by Israel and Operation Midnight Hammer by the US—have done to Iran’s nuclear plans. A leaked US report suggests the strikes may have only delayed Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb by a few months. But both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump claim the damage is much bigger.

Official statements from both countries do say Iran’s program was seriously set back, but they don’t give clear details about how much it was delayed. Even Iran may not fully know how badly its nuclear sites were hit, and its leaders are still figuring out how to respond.

Experts have started to list the clear results of the attacks. They know that Iran’s nuclear sites were badly damaged and that several top scientists were killed. They also know that key machines were destroyed or buried under debris.

However, Iran might still have most of what it needs to build a nuclear bomb—like enriched uranium—either because it was stored safely or can be recovered from the damaged sites.

Now, Iran is likely to hide its nuclear activities more than ever, even if it talks about peace. This makes it hard to predict what will happen next. Iran might never build a bomb—or it could do it very quickly.

What Iran Lost

No matter how much the attacks delayed Iran from building a nuclear bomb, one thing is clear: Iran’s nuclear program has suffered heavy damage.

Its three main nuclear sites—Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow—were all seriously hit. Large parts of the Isfahan and Natanz facilities were completely destroyed. The Arak reactor was also destroyed, which means Iran has lost any chance, for now, to make weapons-grade plutonium.

Israel also struck many other locations, including research centers linked to Iran’s nuclear energy agency and military. These places are believed to have been working on nuclear weapons technology.

At least a dozen top Iranian scientists were killed in the attacks. Their loss has set Iran back by decades, as they held valuable knowledge needed to build nuclear weapons. Israel also targeted parts of Iran’s missile program, which could make it harder for Iran to develop a missile capable of carrying a nuclear bomb.

This kind of damage was expected. In the past, when Israel and the United States thought about attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, they were always sure they could hit the targets they aimed for. Both countries had special bombs designed to reach Iran’s most important nuclear facilities and had spent a lot of time training and planning for such a mission.

So, when the attacks finally happened, they were carried out with great skill and careful coordination—showing the high level of professionalism of their military forces.

However, just hitting the targets doesn’t fully answer the bigger questions: What did the bombings actually achieve? And how much time did they really buy before Iran might be able to build a nuclear bomb?

The biggest question now is whether Iran still has access to its stock of 60% of highly enriched uranium—material needed to make a nuclear bomb.

Reports say this uranium may be buried under the rubble at Fordow and Isfahan after the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. But Iran had stored much of it deep underground to protect it from such attacks. Some reports even say Iran had sealed off some tunnel entrances at Isfahan before the bombing, to keep the material safe.

If the uranium wasn’t completely destroyed, Iran might just need to dig it out. And for that, it has all the tools—like shovels and bulldozers—to recover it.

Experts also aren’t sure if Iran still has the machines—called centrifuges—needed to make weapons-grade uranium. It’s also unclear whether Iran still has the tools required to turn enriched uranium into an actual nuclear weapon.

Iran has kept much of this information secret. After the US pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran started making more advanced centrifuge parts. In 2021, Iran moved the production of these parts underground at its Natanz facility and stopped sharing details about how many it was making.

On June 13, the day Israel began its attacks, Iran was about to open a new uranium enrichment site in Isfahan. But Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said there’s still no clear update on that site—and even he may not have full details, as reported by Foreign Affairs.

The new site Iran planned to open might be located in the same tunnels where much of its enriched uranium is stored. But experts don’t know for sure if those tunnels were completely destroyed in the attacks or if the materials inside are now unusable.

Other parts of the Isfahan facility were likely hit hard, and the strikes probably destroyed machines used to turn enriched uranium into parts for a nuclear weapon. However, Iran could have kept similar equipment in other secret locations.

Iran’s unwillingness to answer questions about its past work on nuclear weapons is a big concern. In fact, this lack of transparency is one of the main reasons why, on June 12, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officially declared that Iran had violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

This means Iran might still have a chance to quickly restart its nuclear bomb program. It could still have enough enriched uranium and the tools needed to make a weapon.

Also, some of Iran’s nuclear scientists are still alive and working, as far as anyone knows. Their role is very important.

If Iran’s nuclear program depends only on a few top scientists—like running a long solo race—the recent deaths of some experts could slow things down a lot.

But if the program works more like a relay race, where many scientists share knowledge and skills, then the loss may not matter as much. The remaining team members might already know what to do—or could learn it quickly.

Collateral Damage

Even in the best-case outcome—where the US and Israel have delayed Iran’s nuclear plans by several years—there could still be serious downsides. One major concern is how this military action affects future cooperation with Iran.

For example, Iran’s parliament has just passed a new law that will reduce how much it works with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This agency sends inspectors to check on Iran’s nuclear activities.

These inspectors are not perfect, and they don’t always get full access. In fact, Iran built the Fordow nuclear site secretly for years before telling the IAEA. But still, the IAEA has been very useful. It warned the world when Iran restarted its uranium work in 2005 and when it began using underground centrifuges at Natanz.

Now, with Iran cutting back on cooperation, the IAEA might lose its ability to monitor what’s happening inside the country.

The loss of IAEA access could have serious consequences. The IAEA inspectors not only watched for signs of nuclear weapons activity, but they also helped confirm whether foreign intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program was true.

For example, when the IAEA shared details about how much enriched uranium Iran had, independent experts could use that data to figure out how close Iran might be to making a bomb. This helped show the world that U.S. warnings about Iran were based on real facts—not just rumors or political claims.

Even intelligence agencies from other countries used the IAEA’s public reports to double-check their own findings. This gave them more confidence in their understanding of Iran’s program.

Most importantly, the IAEA gave the world some reassurance that Iran had not yet built a nuclear weapon. This kind of transparency is what the IAEA was designed for—to make sure nuclear energy is used peacefully, not for making bombs.

Iran might also decide to stop following the rules of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). This treaty promises that countries will not try to build nuclear weapons. In return, they get access to peaceful nuclear technology and must allow inspections by the IAEA.

Some experts believe Iran hasn’t really followed the treaty for years, because of its secret nuclear work. Still, breaking the treaty officially would be a big deal. In the past, Iran’s violations of the NPT gave the United Nations a legal reason to place sanctions on the country.

The NPT also gives the world a legal way to ask Iran to be open about its nuclear program and promise not to build bombs. But Iran can choose to leave the treaty, and now it might. If it does, it could even argue that it has a good reason to leave.

If Iran withdraws from the NPT, the only thing stopping it from making a nuclear bomb would be a religious order—or fatwa—from its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who has said building such weapons is against Islam.

The dangers from the US and Israeli attacks on Iran aren’t just about politics—they could also affect what Iran does next with its nuclear program.

If Iran decides to restart its nuclear work, it will likely build new sites in stronger, more hidden places. This is something Iran has done before. For example, in 2021, after a drone attack damaged its centrifuge workshop, Iran moved the facility underground for better protection. (News reports like The New York Times said Israel was behind the attack, though Israel didn’t confirm it.)

When Iran felt its uranium supply was at risk, it also stored it deep in tunnels. The US military has special bombs that can destroy underground bunkers, but these bombs are limited in number. After using them on Fordow, the US may not have many left.

There are also signs Iran may have moved some nuclear materials out of Fordow before the US bombed the site. If that’s true—and if not everything was destroyed in the attacks—Iran could now hide some of this material during the clean-up process and say it was lost in the bombing. Since that material was once being watched by the IAEA, this could make it easier for Iran to secretly rebuild its nuclear program. This is a serious concern for anyone worried about Iran making a nuclear weapon.

The United States may no longer have the chance to solve the Iran nuclear issue through peaceful talks. Iran might still agree to negotiate or sign a new deal, but it’s hard to imagine it trusting the US now. This is because the US was in the middle of trying to make a new agreement when Israel—America’s close ally—began its airstrikes.

Also, no one fully knows the details of the cease-fire between Iran and Israel. It's not even clear what actions could break the deal. For example, if Iran uses a bulldozer to clear rubble and reopen its Fordow nuclear site, that might be seen as breaking the agreement. If that happens, the US or Israel could attack again, and the fighting may restart.

US President Donald Trump has said there’s no need to worry because, in his words, Iran’s nuclear program has been “totally obliterated.” But most experts believe that’s not really true.

Brace For Impact

The attacks by Israel and the US have definitely slowed down Iran’s nuclear plans—for now. But this is not the end of the issue.

Iran may still try to quickly build a nuclear weapon in the future. So, American leaders need to be ready in case that happens.

One possible situation in the near future is that Iran collects whatever uranium it still has and enriches it further to make it ready for use in a nuclear weapon. This could be done in new underground tunnels at places like Isfahan or Natanz.

If Iran still has the needed machines—and it doesn’t need many—it could quickly turn the uranium into a form that can be used for a bomb. Then, it could shape the material into parts for a nuclear device. By adding high explosives, Iran might be able to build a basic nuclear bomb—at least one that could be tested.

Now that a cease-fire is in place, Iran could rebuild its nuclear program slowly and quietly—especially if no one stops it or punishes it for doing so.

Iran might take its time to make sure everything is done perfectly before trying to build a bomb. But if the cease-fire seems unstable or likely to end, Iran could speed up the process.

Even if Iran chooses not to make a nuclear weapon right now, it will almost surely rebuild its program in safer, hidden locations—far away from the watchful eyes of international inspectors like the IAEA.

To deal with these risks, Israel and the United States will now depend even more on their spy agencies to watch what Iran is doing.

These intelligence teams are skilled—especially Israel’s, which has already shown it knows a lot about Iran’s nuclear program.

But after the recent attacks, Iran will be much more careful. Its own security and counter-spy teams will be extra alert, making it harder for outsiders to gather information.

Military action might have been needed to stop Iran’s nuclear program, but it came with serious risks and challenges.

Now that force has been used, the United States must stay fully involved. It must make sure that all the risks it took were not wasted—and do everything possible to stop Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon.

Trump might choose to ignore any warnings that Iran is still working on a nuclear weapon.

In the past few days, his team has strongly insisted that Iran’s nuclear program was completely destroyed. Because of this, he may not want to admit—either in public or in private—that Iran’s program might still be alive.

No matter what happens next, the world is now entering a very uncertain and risky time when it comes to Iran’s nuclear plans.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. Contact: girishlinganna@gmail.com )

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