Pakistan's Strategic Trap – Why Islamabad Will Not Follow Riyadh Into US-Israel War With Iran

As tensions rise in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia may consider action against Iran after missile attacks. However, Pakistan is unlikely to join despite a defence pact. Experts say Pakistan faces internal security threats and cannot risk opening another front, making direct involvement in the US-Israel-Iran conflict highly unlikely.

New Delhi: After its oil facilities, military bases and even areas near Riyadh being targeted by the Iranian missiles and drones, Saudi Arabia is now contemplating to attack Iran as its foreign ministry had stated that the kingdom “reserves the right” to act militarily after attacks on its territory. 

Since the beginning of the conflict, Saudi Arabia has come under huge attacks by hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. Most of them were intercepted, as the Saudi official claims.

As per the report, the Iranian had targeted the city of Riyadh for the first time on Wednesday ever-since the war broke between US-Israel and Iran three weeks ago. So far, Tehran has attacked the US embassy in Riyadh, Prince Sultan Air Base, as well as the kingdom’s energy infrastructure.

If Saudi Arabia joins war on Iran, options for Pakistan

If Saudi Arabia joins the US-Israel coalition against Iran, the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement it signed with Pakistan in September 2025 places Islamabad at the centre of a crisis that it cannot afford.

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) commits both countries to treating any act of aggression against one as an act against both.

If Saudi joins the war against Iran, the SMDA would invoke that clause.

Asianet Newsable English spoke to strategic affairs expert Major General Sudhakar Jee (Retd) to understand what would be the Pakistan’s stand in such scenario.

“Islamabad already fights on multiple fronts. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to bleed the army across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Balochistan Liberation Army's insurgency shows no signs of exhaustion. And the Afghan Taliban – theoretically a proxy Islamabad once cultivated – now governs a hostile state on Pakistan's western flank with little diplomatic deference to Rawalpindi.”

“Opening a fourth front by antagonizing Tehran would be, by any military assessment, national suicide,” he said.

“Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has demonstrated both the will and the capability to project force beyond its borders.”

“Tehran has already used proxy networks and direct strikes to punish perceived enemies. Should Pakistan be seen as a belligerent in an anti-Iran coalition, the IRGC would have both motive and means to systematically destabilise Pakistan's already combustible interior – through financial support to the BLA, through the Shia militant ecosystem in Gilgit-Baltistan, and through border pressure that Pakistan's western army corps cannot sustain simultaneously with its eastern commitments against India,” the expert said.

The defence pact is “much more risky for Pakistan than for Saudi Arabia.” Riyadh has strategic depth, oil revenues, and US basing infrastructure. Pakistan has none of those buffers.

“The situation for Pakistan will go from bad to worse. Hence, Pakistan is unlikely to join,” Sudhakar Jee said. The war between US-Israel and Iran entered its 20th day on Thursday, with both sides intensifying military operations.

The conflict was fueled further after Iran’s South Pars gas field, one of the world’s largest, was attacked by Israeli forces.

In retaliation, Tehran struck Qatar and fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after vowing attacks on oil and gas targets throughout the Gulf.