Opinion | Is An Attack Imminent? US, Israeli Intelligence Predict Multi-Pronged Assault by Iran

By Girish Linganna | First Published Aug 6, 2024, 7:26 AM IST

Israeli residents complained of a GPS disruption ahead of Iran’s expected attack to avenge the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. A senior Hamas leader who had headed the group’s political office in Qatar, he was in Iran for the inauguration of the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Wednesday (July 31).

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has alerted the G7 foreign ministers that Iran and Hezbollah may launch an attack on Israel as early as on Monday and asked them to coordinate diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions, according to Axios.

In Israel, the leading newspaper, Times of Israel, reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government may approve a preemptive strike on Iran to prevent an attack on Israeli soil. The report states that top Israeli intelligence officials from Mossad and Shin Bet, including David Barnea and Ronen Bar, attended a meeting called by Netanyahu. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi were also present.

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Cyber Attack, Or Technical Glitch?

Residents of central Israel reported disruptions to navigation apps, such as Google Maps and Waze. According to the Times of Israel, some Tel-Aviv motorists were being shown that they were in Beirut. Al-Mayadeen quoted the Israeli media as saying that the Ben Gurion airport, Tel-Aviv, website had gone down after a severe cyber attack. Accordingly, many flights to and from Israel have been cancelled. Israel’s Channel 12, however, said the website of Ben Gurion airport had gone down due to visitors’ pressure on the website.

Embassies Urge Citizens to Leave Lebanon

Due to the escalating situation, several embassies, including India’s, have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon while commercial flights are still available. Hezbollah has been engaging in almost daily exchanges of fire with the Israeli forces, targeting military positions. This started after their ally, Hamas, launched an unprovoked wildcat strike on Israel on October 7, 2023, sparking the current conflict in Gaza.

Hezbollah, established in the early-1980s with support from Iran and the latter’s primary proxy in the Middle East, planned to intensify its attacks deeper into Israeli territory, potentially targeting more than just military sites, Iran had stated on Saturday. This rapid escalation follows Israel’s recent killing of a senior Hezbollah military commander, Fuad Shukr. On July 30, Israel struck a residential area in south Beirut, killing Shukr and five civilians.

Iran’s Challenges & Tactics in the Conflict

Iran faces significant challenges in any attempt to attack Israel, primarily because the two nations do not share a border and are separated by a considerable distance. To address this, Iran has been working to exert influence over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, effectively turning them into varying degrees of proxy states.

However, the Iranian military cannot simply traverse Iraq and Syria to reach Israel due to the presence of American air defences in these countries, which complicates any overland or aerial assault. Similarly, while Iran’s navy could theoretically navigate up the Red Sea, they would face the formidable obstacle of passing by Saudi Arabia, their chief adversary, as well as Egypt, which is not an ally. An attack via the Mediterranean presents its own difficulties, as well, as any such movement would be detected well in advance, rendering it ineffective.

Given the impracticality of a direct war by air, land, or sea, how might Iran go about attacking Israel? The most effective strategy for Iran is to use terrorist groups as proxy armies. Hezbollah, for instance, is funded and trained by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) specifically for this purpose. Hezbollah shares Iran’s core ideology and mainly recruits from Lebanon’s Shi’ite Muslim population.

Similarly, Hamas receives substantial military aid from Iran. Consequently, any conflict between Iran and Israel would, possibly, involve coordinated rocket attacks from both Lebanon and Gaza. Iran openly acknowledges that Hezbollah’s arsenal of over 100,000 rockets serves as a deterrent against Israeli strikes on their nuclear facilities.

The Iranians have another potential method for attacking Israel, although it is not yet operational: nuclear-equipped ballistic missiles. This scenario is Israel’s worst fear. Despite Israel’s impressive missile defence systems—four active and two more under development—the Iranians would only need one nuclear missile to get through and cause devastating damage.

That is all the good news for Iran. The bad news is that Israel has a much larger, better-equipped and better-trained air force with a longer range. This means that, in any direct conflict, the Iranian Air Force would likely be defeated within a day. While Iran’s air defences are strong, Israel would still be able to bomb almost any target in Iran with little resistance within the first week.

Israel is deeply concerned about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, especially as Iran continues to advance its missile technology. In the event of a nuclear exchange, Israel is well-defended, but lacks strategic depth, while Iran has no effective missile defences. Israel’s greater number of nuclear weapons would ensure Iran deeply regrets any nuclear aggression within an hour.

Anticipating this, Iran has buried its nuclear facilities so deep that even the best bunker-busters, which only the Americans possess, cannot destroy them. However, most of Iran’s military bases would still be vulnerable to airstrikes. Additionally, if Israel chose to, it could potentially cripple Iran’s oil and shipping industries, devastating the Iranian economy.

There is another complication. A direct war between Israel and Iran would not happen in isolation. Iran’s only significant regional ‘ally’ is Russia. But Russia has no interest in a conflict with Israel, or in supporting Iran. It is preoccupied with its ongoing war with Ukraine and its own economic problems.

Iraq would be caught in the middle between Iran and the US, lacking the resources to significantly impact the conflict beyond possibly opening its borders, or airspace to one side. Meanwhile, Syria would be torn between Iran and Russia, and President Assad would still be dealing with his own issues, even without Russian pressure to stay out of the conflict.

The Saudis and most of the Persian Gulf countries (except Qatar) have a strong dislike for Iran. If given the opportunity, they would eagerly join a coalition aimed at destroying Iran.

Then, there are the Americans. Would they go to war with Iran to defend Israel? Probably not! They have never done so before, and there is no reason to think they would start now. However, they would likely provide logistical support to Israel, such as midair refuelling for Israeli bombers over Iraqi airspace. This is significant and, if Iran were to attack American planes or personnel, it could escalate quickly.

The US might take a few days or even weeks to fully commit to a war against Iran, depending on Congressional involvement. But if they do decide to engage, they would, possibly, bring the Gulf countries with them and aim to cripple Iran’s military infrastructure. Iran could potentially collapse within a week or two, although, if the US opts not to launch a ground invasion and lets the Gulf states handle it, the conflict could drag on.

If Iran decides to use nuclear weapons and one does manage to get through Israeli defences—or, even if it does not—Israel would, possibly, retaliate with nuclear strikes on Iran. This would be disastrous for everyone involved, which is why it is unlikely that Iran would use a nuclear weapon against Israel. Losing multiple Iranian cities in exchange for Haifa, Tel-Aviv, or Jerusalem is not a trade-off that even the most extreme Iranian leaders would find acceptable.

To sum up: A direct conventional attack on Israel by Iran is unlikely, but proxy warfare is very likely. In a direct confrontation, Iran would fare poorly due to the superior Israeli Air Force. Such a war would, possibly, lead to countries—such as the Gulf states, the US and others—joining against Iran, although probably not until Israel has demolished the Iranian Air Force and air bases.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

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