Bangladesh Elections 2026: Will Tarique Rahman Sink or Soar After Khaleda Zia’s Death? Experts Decode

Khaleda Zia’s death leaves Bangladesh at a tense political crossroads. Experts say her absence weakens BNP’s comeback hopes as Tareq Zia struggles for acceptance ahead of the February 12 election.

With the passing away of India-born and former Bangladesh Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia on Tuesday, a long and eventful chapter in the country’s political history has drawn to a close.

Lovingly called “Putul” in her early years, Khaleda Zia’s death comes at a fragile moment for Bangladesh — a nation wrestling with political uncertainty, rising extremism, and violence, even as it prepares for national elections on February 12.

Asianet Newsable English spoke to experts to understand how her absence reshapes the political narrative in Dhaka.

‘One of the Most Iconic Female Political Brands’

Founder of Kolkata-based strategic think tank P3 – People Policy Politics, Subhashish Banerjee, describes Khaleda Zia’s political imprint as unmatched.

“Begum Khaleda Zia is not just another name in Bangladesh politics, but one of the most iconic female political brands, who had redefined Bangladesh's identity in the global arena.”

Despite being out of active politics for over a decade, Banerjee believes her symbolic influence never truly faded.

“Though she was out of the political dimensions for more than a decade, still, her intellectual presence was an obvious boost for BNP activists across the soil of Bangladesh.”

A BNP Without Its Matriarch

Bangladesh today finds itself at a crossroads. The ban on the Awami League, which has governed for most of the past decade, has created what Banerjee calls “a political void.”

“Considering the present unstable political scenario of Bangladesh, the obvious political turmoil that has resulted in the ban of Awami League, has created a political void in the nation.”

For the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), this was seen as an opening — perhaps even a comeback moment. But Khaleda Zia’s passing now inserts uncertainty into that calculation.

“As an alternative, BNP was finding it to be an opportunity for a political comeback and if it stands so, Zia's death will cost them in terms of lack of brand value, as Tarique Rahman is 'not to be considered' well settled, in the Bangladesh politics, at this moment.”

Her son, Tarique Rahman, now faces the unenviable task of stepping into her shoes — and doing so against the clock.

“Thus, the rising temperature of the upcoming elections will be more of an intellectual struggle for 'Brand Tarique' to establish himself as the leader to look up to, since the time till the elections is too short to define the much needed alternate plan.”

Banerjee also warns that the political terrain could tilt dangerously if Awami League returns in any form.

“The situation may also prove to be politically fatal for Taique Rahman and BNP, if, due to some kind of global pressure and international interference, the Awami League is brought back from suspension. In that case, BNP will not be able to justify Tarique as an alternative to Madam Hasina, for the prime ministerial role. This, I believe, may be flagged as the worst possible alliance for the future of Bangladesh.”

A Leader Who Helped Shape Bangladesh’s Democracy

Veteran journalist Gautam Lahiri highlights Khaleda Zia’s historic role as a trailblazer. She was Bangladesh’s first woman prime minister, taking oath three times and completing two full terms — 1991–96 and 2001–06.

“Khaleda Zia was the first woman prime minister of Bangladesh. She took oath as the prime minister thrice. She completed two full terms – 1991-96 and 2001-06 but she could not complete her five year tenure after 1996.”

Lahiri recalls that the fall of the Army-backed government in the 1980s came through a joint democratic movement led by both Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina.

“The fall of the Army-backed government in 1980s was the result of the joint movement led by both Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina. And the reason why Sheikh Hasina in her message said about her that she was the champion of democracy in Bangladesh.”

In death, he says, even critics have paused.

“After her death a consensus has emerged about Khaleda Zia’s role in Bangladesh politics – nobody is saying anything negative about her.”

Her passing, Lahiri believes, may offer BNP a sympathy wave ahead of elections.

“Definitely her party – BNP will get advantage in the upcoming national election, if it will be held on February 12.”

But his reflection is also deeply human.

“Her life is interesting from a house wife to politician to the prime minister definitely her struggle in the political journey is being acknowledged by everyone. That’s a respect she got after her death.”

India will be officially represented at her funeral. An official statement confirmed that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will travel to Dhaka on December 31, 2025 to pay respects on behalf of the Government and people of India.