El Nino likely from May 2026, to impact global temperatures: WMO

The WMO says El Nino is likely from May 2026, set to affect global temperatures and rainfall. Climate models are in strong alignment. The IMD has already forecast a below-normal monsoon for India, the first such prediction in three years.

WMO Forecasts El Nino Onset from May 2026

The World Meteorological Organization on Friday said that El Nino weather conditions are likely to develop from as early as May 2026, potentially affecting global temperatures and rainfall patterns. El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts from nine to 12 months, according to the WMO.

"After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.

El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth. These events reshape global weather, influencing rainfall, drought, and extreme events across regions.

El Nino is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.

Global Temperature and Rainfall Outlook

For the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above-normal nearly everywhere, the WMO said adding that the signal is especially strong over southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Northern Africa.

Rainfall predictions show strong regional variations, the World Met agency said.

Impact on India's Monsoon

The India Meterological Department earlier this month had said that India is likely to see below-normal monsoon this year, the first time in three years. The IMD said the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal (95-90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of LPA with a model error of +- 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on the period of 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), normal rainfall is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

"It is expected to be 80 per cent this year," M Ravichandran, Secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, said while addressing a press conference Ravichandran said.

"At present, weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to neutral conditions over equatorial Pacific and neutral Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD) conditions presently over the Indian Ocean we are expecting the second half of the monsoon period to develop IOD positive," he said.

Latest climate models forecast indicates that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season. As per the WMO global seaonal climate update for May-June 2026, the Nino 3.4 plume indicates a rapid warming trend and "multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate a nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures."

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