Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: What happens if US presidential election ends in a tie? | EXPLAINED
By Shweta Kumari | First Published Nov 5, 2024, 6:22 PM ISTSo what exactly happens if neither Kamala Harris or Donald Trump achieves the Electoral College majority required to win the US presidential election? Read on to the full story to find out.
A tie in the US presidential election, with neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump clinching the 270 electoral votes needed to win, remains unlikely yet possible. Here’s a closer look at what would unfold if America’s highest office came down to a nail-biting deadlock.
A Closer Look at the Electoral College
In US presidential elections, it’s not the national popular vote that determines the winner but the Electoral College, a body of 538 electors representing each state’s congressional presence. This total comprises each state’s two senators and its House representatives, making for a unique calculation that gives every state a varying number of electoral votes.
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With most states following a "winner-takes-all" approach (except Maine and Nebraska), the candidate who wins a state’s popular vote claims all of that state’s electoral votes.
How Florida’s 29 Electoral Votes Are Awarded
Take Florida, a key battleground state with 29 electoral votes. If on Election Day, Donald Trump garners 5 million votes in Florida and Kamala Harris secures 4.8 million, Trump would claim all of Florida’s electoral votes under the “winner-takes-all” rule. This sizable haul brings him significantly closer to the coveted 270 total, underscoring Florida’s critical role in close races.
The 269-269 Deadlock: How Could It Happen?
While rare, a 269-269 tie could theoretically occur. Imagine a scenario in which Kamala Harris sweeps Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump locks down Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single congressional district in Nebraska. Both would find themselves exactly at 269 electoral votes, leading to an Electoral College stalemate.
Such a deadlock would push the election decision into the hands of Congress, invoking a lesser-known process outlined by the US Constitution.
Contingent Election: Congress Takes the Reins
If no candidate reaches 270 votes, a “contingent election” would convene in Congress on January 6, 2025. In this process, each state delegation in the House of Representatives casts a single vote for president. Smaller states, like Wyoming, wield the same influence as giants like California under this unique rule, shifting the balance of power.
To secure the presidency, a candidate needs at least 26 out of 50 state delegations. Given current party alignments, Republicans may hold an advantage. Meanwhile, the Senate is responsible for selecting the vice president, with each senator casting an individual vote to determine who takes on that role.
A Historical Precedent: The Last Contingent Election
The last time Congress found itself in this high-stakes position was in 1800, when Thomas Jefferson and John Adams deadlocked, leading the House to decide the outcome after 36 intense ballots. The result ultimately spurred the 12th Amendment, which adjusted the rules — yet did not eliminate the potential for a tie.
What a Tied Election Could Mean Today
Should such a scenario arise today, America would face a period of heightened uncertainty. A contingent election would likely ignite fierce partisan disagreements, especially given the divisive nature of modern US politics. Voters, many of whom already view the election process with skepticism, could witness an unprecedented test of the nation’s political system, underscoring the complexities and nuances of the U.S. Electoral College.
In a nutshell, a 269-269 tie in the US presidential election would transfer the power of decision-making to Congress. The House of Representatives would vote for the president, and the Senate for the vice president.
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