What’s Behind Mizuho’s Slew Of Price Target Cuts On Fintech Stocks?

Mizuho analysts cited the latest macroeconomic data and management commentary as reasons behind the price target reductions.

• Mizuho reduced PayPal's price target to $75 from $84.
• The firm also lowered its 2026 revenue growth estimates for Shift4Payments to the high 20s, down from 36%, due to increased macro uncertainty. 
• It maintained an “Outperform” rating on the stocks.

Shares of fintech firms, including PayPal (PYPL), Fiserv (FIS), and Shift4Payments (FOUR), were in the spotlight on Monday after analysts at Mizuho lowered their price targets for all three firms, citing the latest macroeconomic data and recent management commentary at public conferences.  

Mizuho lowered PayPal's price target to $75 from $84, Fiserv's to $100 from $110, and Shift4Payments' to $90 from $102. However, it maintained an “Outperform” rating on the stocks. 

Mizuho lowered Fiserv's adjusted operating income margin target from 36.4% to 35.8%. This implies an adjusted operating income of $1.744 billion, down from previous estimates of $1.781 billion, resulting in a year-over-year margin decline of 180 basis points (bps), which is in line with management commentary, the note said.  

Mizuho also lowered its 2026 adjusted revenue estimates for Shift4Payments to the high 20s, down from 36% previously, citing higher macro uncertainty in 2026.

“We're seeing basket sizes just trade down, average order value being down, particularly in retail where, you know, consumers are just being more selective,” said Jamie Miller, Chief Financial and Operating Officer at PayPal, in its recent third quarter (Q3) earnings call to analysts.

Elevated Inflation Makes Consumers Selective

The U.S. consumer price index for November rose 2.7% annually, slower than expected, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Still, consumers continue to face price pressures on basic goods and services.

With continued price pressures, consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, and international travel is hurting firms like PayPal and Shift4Payments that earn primarily from transaction and processing fees and cross-border payment fees.

However, the year-end holiday season, which has historically been a key period for payment firms, could drive consumer spending and boost their Q4 results.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

Retail sentiment in PayPal trended in “neutral” territory, while in Fiserv and Shift4Payments it trended in “bearish” territory. 

Shares in PayPal, Fiserv, and Shift4Payments were up 1%, 1.6%, and 3.5%, respectively.

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