We Asked Retail Where Tesla Stock Will Close Out 2024: More Than Half Think It Will Be Over $450

The real turnaround came post-November, after Donald Trump’s election victory and his decision to tap Elon Musk for a key role in his administration.

Tesla Inc. has experienced one of the most dramatic turnarounds in 2024, with its stock surging over 86% year-to-date, making it the second-best performer among the ‘Magnificent 7’ after Nvidia. 

Shares of the EV-maker last closed at $462.28, and a recent Stocktwits poll revealed that 67% of retail investors expect Tesla to end the year above $450, while 15% believe it will be in the $420 to $450 range.

The EV giant, led by Elon Musk, began the year on shaky ground, grappling with slowing EV demand, falling margins, and high interest rates. 

Consecutive profit misses in the first two quarters, coupled with aggressive price cuts and increased spending on AI projects, kept the stock the poorest performer among tech peers for much of the year.

Momentum shifted in the latter half of 2024, starting with plans to expand its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to China and Europe. 

While a third-quarter (Q3) deliveries miss and a lukewarm robotaxi event in October kept retail sentiment cautious, Tesla broke two quarters of profit declines with a strong Q3 earnings report, posting adjusted earnings per share above estimates.

The real turnaround came post-November, after Donald Trump’s election victory and his decision to tap Musk for a key role in his administration. 

Analysts began factoring in regulatory tailwinds for Tesla, including eased restrictions on self-driving technologies and potential tariffs to shield against Chinese rivals.

Since then, Tesla has gained over 83%, reaching an all-time high of $488.50 on Dec. 18. 

Retail interest in Tesla has also exploded, with the stock retaining its crown as the most-watched symbol on Stocktwits, gaining nearly 7% more watchers and seeing a 1,140% jump in message volume over the past year.

Tesla currently trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 126.7 and a forward multiple of 148.2, significantly higher than its peers, according to Koyfin data. 

Analyst price targets range from $528 to $120, with the stock trading 38% above the average target.

As 2024 draws to a close, Tesla continues to ride a wave of optimism driven by retail exuberance, improved earnings, and the prospect of favorable policies under the incoming Trump administration.

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