USO, TPET, INDO, BATL Rally As Oil Surges — Analysts Warn Strategic Reserve Release Can’t Replace Hormuz Supply

Carlyle’s Jeff Currie said reserve flows may add only about 2 million barrels per day, compared with disruptions of nearly 18 million barrels per day.

• Crude prices spiked sharply, with Brent rising as much as 7.9% toward $100 and West Texas Intermediate nearing $94.
• Shipping disruptions and production cuts across Gulf producers have removed roughly 6% of global oil supply.
• GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan cautioned that the oil spike could push diesel toward $5 and gasoline toward $4.

Oil stocks jumped in extended trading on Thursday as crude prices surged toward $100 a barrel, with analysts warning that even a massive release from U.S. emergency reserves may not be enough to offset disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) rose about 5% in after-hours trading, while Trio Petroleum (TPET) jumped roughly 14%, Indonesia Energy (INDO) gained around 6%, and Battalion Oil (BATL) climbed about 10%.

Brent crude rallied toward $100 a barrel, jumping as much as 7.9%, while West Texas Intermediate climbed near $94.

Hormuz Disruption Fuels Oil Spike

Oil markets have been shaken by escalating risks across the Middle East, including attacks on ships near Iraqi ports and a near halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint that normally handles about 20% of the world’s seaborne crude. The disruptions have forced major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE to cut output, removing roughly 6% of global oil supply so far.

The supply shock has overshadowed governments' efforts to stabilize the market. The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown in its history. The U.S. plans to contribute 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with shipments expected to begin next week.

Analysts Warn Stockpile Releases May Fall Short

Despite the unprecedented reserve releases, analysts say the move may not be enough to offset disruptions in global supply. Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, warned that the surge in crude could quickly translate into higher fuel prices.

“Oil surging 8% after hours now pushes $5 diesel as more likely and $4/gal gasoline gaining steam,” De Haan said on X, adding that “172 million barrel SPR release highlights the degree of the situation… finite releases still don’t replace Strait of Hormuz.” 

De Haan also noted that the pace of oil releases matters more than the size of emergency stockpiles. “When millions of barrels of oil are interrupted daily, it’s not the size of the release, but the rate of release that matters,” he said. “RELEASE RATE MATTERS!”

Meanwhile, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Energy Pathways, said the conflict has already triggered widespread disruptions across global commodity supply chains. “You’ve disrupted global supply chains. This is not just oil, it’s gas, fertilizers, metals, petrochemicals,” Currie told Bloomberg.

He added that even large emergency releases may struggle to offset the scale of potential supply losses. “There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude, none,” he said, noting that reserve releases may add about 2 million barrels per day, while supply disruptions could reach around 18 million barrels per day.

On the other hand, ANZ Research said geopolitical pressure on Iran has intensified, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning that the country could strike additional targets if necessary. Expectations that additional Russian oil could return to the market have also been “squashed,” ANZ said, pointing to the European Union’s push to continue enforcing price caps on Russian crude, The Wall Street Journal noted.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for USO, TPET and INDO stayed ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, while INDO’s sentiment slipped to the ‘bullish’ zone from ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past week amid a 24% decline in 24-hour message volume. 

One user said, “IEA decision also signals how acute the oil shortage risk is.”

Another user said, “20% of the world's oil travels through the Strait. No end in sight for the war. Iran not accepting goats as an apology. Yeah we’re going to $150.”

So far this year, USO is up about 56%, TPET has gained roughly 86%, INDO has climbed around 62%, while BATL has surged more than 1,620%.

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