USO, BATL, TPET Tumble As Oil Sees Wild Reversal After Trump Signals Iran War May End — Analysts Say Rally May Not Be Over

Crude whipsawed as Brent and WTI surged on supply fears before reversing after Trump’s remarks and talk of strategic reserve releases.

• BATL dropped about 16%, TPET slid roughly 12%, and the USO ETF declined more than 4% on Monday.
• Economist Peter Schiff said the reversal was largely driven by profit-taking tied to talk of reserve releases and Trump’s comments.
• GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said U.S. diesel prices have climbed to about $4.73 per gallon and gasoline to roughly $3.53 per gallon.

Oil stocks pulled back on Monday after crude prices staged a dramatic reversal when U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran war could end soon, triggering one of the most volatile trading sessions in oil markets in years.

Shares of Battalion Oil Corporation (BATL) fell about 16%, while Trio Petroleum (TPET) declined roughly 12% on Monday. The United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF also dropped more than 4% during the session.

Oil’s Wild Reversal Jolts Energy Markets

Oil prices plunged after Trump said the Iran war could end “pretty quickly,” adding that the U.S. may waive oil sanctions and deploy naval escorts for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude shipments.

The remarks triggered a sharp reversal after both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude had surged on fears the conflict could disrupt oil flows through the chokepoint. Global benchmark Brent swung in an intraday range of about $36, the widest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as traders also weighed the possibility of major economies releasing oil from strategic reserves.

The volatility comes as the two-week conflict continues to disrupt energy markets and push U.S. gasoline prices to their highest level since August 2024.

Analysts Say Pullback Is Profit-Taking

Despite the sudden reversal, some analysts argued that the broader oil rally may still have room to run. Economist Peter Schiff said on X that crude reversed sharply from overnight highs after traders reacted first to talk of a coordinated release from strategic petroleum reserves and then to Trump’s comments suggesting the war could end soon.

“These stories drove profit-taking, but the trend is still up,” Schiff said. 

Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic also noted on X that much of the selling appeared driven by systematic trading strategies hitting stop-loss levels after the rapid rally. He said the oil trend remains positive and that commodity trading advisors could re-establish long positions if geopolitical risks persist.

Fuel Price Outlook Begins To Shift

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, said on X that the U.S. national average diesel price has climbed to about $4.73 per gallon, while gasoline averages roughly $3.53 per gallon.

However, if crude continues to trade below the recent spike levels, gasoline prices could stabilize or even start easing by the end of the week, De Haan said. He added that earlier fears of “the probability of the national average reaching $4 per gallon within the next month appeared increasingly likely, but if oil prices continue to struggle below the overnight highs.”

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward USO and BATL was ‘bullish,’ while sentiment toward TPET was ‘extremely bullish,’ with all three stocks seeing ‘extremely high’ message volumes.

One user said, “Nothing has changed. Trump managed to shift sentiment but oil production hasn’t increased again and still no tankers pass through the strait. Few more days of this and Oil is back to 110+ again.”

Another user said, “Its all a gamble at this point. No one knows what will happen, if the strait closes, moon, if USA controls it then dump.”

So far this year, BATL has skyrocketed 1,560%, TPET has climbed 114%, and USO has gained 51%.

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