TSLA Stock Slips Overnight: Analyst Sees 2027, 2028 Revenue Below Consensus On Slower Optimus, Robotaxi Ramp

Citizens expects Optimus to bring production complexity, delays and higher spending as Tesla enters an Optimus investment cycle.

• The research firm warned that Tesla’s “grand vision will take time to achieve,” with its 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates 4% and 12% below consensus, respectively.
• Musk recently said Optimus production will be “extremely slow at first,” adding, “This is not like making a car,” as Tesla prepares limited Fremont output.
• Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout is advancing but remains limited, with a small geofenced Miami launch and about 59 vehicles operating across Austin, Dallas and Houston as of last month.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) slipped 0.3% overnight heading into Friday after Citizens initiated coverage with a cautious view, warning that Optimus and Robotaxi may take longer to contribute to revenue than Wall Street expects.

TSLA stock rallied 3% on Thursday, putting shares on pace for a second straight winning week with a 3% gain so far. 

Citizens Research Sees Slower Optimus, Robotaxi Payoff 

Citizens initiated coverage on TSLA with a 'Market Perform' rating and no price target, noting that the firm is launching coverage due to its potential in physical AI, which could unlock workarounds for unstructured physical tasks in the same way AI is accelerating knowledge work.

The brokerage said that the building blocks for robotics to materially advance are now in place, as AI and world models improve, faster chips enable better edge compute, and new robotic capabilities are created. The firm said that Tesla has the necessary assets to materially advance physical AI and create “true abundance” by automating labor, including leading autonomy models, its own silicon, advanced manufacturing, state-of-the-art batteries and CEO Elon Musk’s engineering prowess.

Citizens said it remains positive on Tesla’s long-term vision, calling the automation of the physical world one of the largest opportunities across its coverage universe. However, the firm warned that this “grand vision will take time to achieve.”

The brokerage said that optimism built into Tesla’s valuation from Optimus and Robotaxi suggests investors may be assuming both products are closer to meaningful contribution than Citizens believes. With a more conservative view on Tesla’s new growth engines, Citizens said its 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates are 4% and 12% below consensus, respectively. Citizens also expects Optimus to bring a new level of production complexity, with delays and higher spending, and said Tesla appears to be at the start of an Optimus investment cycle. 

Musk Warns Optimus Ramp Will Be Slow 

The cautious analyst view comes after Musk recently pushed back on speculation that Optimus production could ramp quickly. Recently, Musk said on X: “No, Optimus production will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new. This is not like making a car.”

Tesla is converting the former Model S/X manufacturing space at Fremont for initial Optimus production, with limited output expected to begin in late July or August 2026. A larger dedicated factory at Giga Texas is being built for higher-volume production, with a target around summer 2027. Musk has previously said that Optimus includes 10,000 unique parts, making early output rates difficult to predict. Early units are expected to focus on simpler factory tasks before expanding into more complex use cases.

Tesla Robotaxi Rollout Stays Limited

Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout is also progressing, but still at a controlled pace. The company has confirmed that its Miami Robotaxi fleet is operating unsupervised, meaning employees are not monitoring the vehicles from inside. Miami follows Tesla’s rollout in Austin and marks another step in the company’s autonomous ride-hailing ambitions.

Still, the launch appears deliberately limited. Miami’s initial geofence covers a compact area in western Miami-Dade County, excluding downtown Miami, Miami Beach, the airport and most of Coral Gables. Field reports have indicated only a small number of unsupervised Model Y vehicles were active at launch, according to Teslarati. 

Tesla’s Robotaxi service remains far from mass scale, with only about 59 vehicles operating across Austin, Dallas and Houston as of last month, plus the recent Miami expansion, while long wait times, cancellations and limited availability also weigh on broader commercialization. Tesla’s next catalyst is its Q2 earnings report, which will be released after market close on July 22.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.\

One user said, “$TSLA This Quarter  is going to be a very solid Earnings + Cybercabs news + Optimus in the 2h half of the year!!”

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So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's second-worst performer, down about 10%. 

Another user said, “$TSLA Demand for Tesla's Autonomous Driving feature is increasing. A good jump in the stock price is expected.”

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