Tesla Stock Gains Momentum After Analyst Upgrade On Auto Growth Hopes: Retail Eyes $500 Peak Soon

The long-term potential for Tesla’s autonomous driving could drive its market cap to $4.7 trillion by 2030, New Street said.

Tesla, Inc. shares rose nearly 2% on Monday morning, on track to extend gains from the previous session, sparking some retail buzz as well. 

The rally came after New Street upgraded Tesla to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ and set a $460 price target, according to The Fly, implying a 12% upside.

The brokerage cited optimism around Tesla’s growth in autos, supported by the impending launch of lower-cost models and stabilizing gross margins. 

New Street also highlighted Tesla’s accelerated progress in full self-driving technology, which could lead to partially unsupervised versions and robotaxi test fleets by the end of the year. 

The long-term potential for Tesla’s autonomous driving could drive its market cap to $4.7 trillion by 2030, New Street added.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was ‘bullish’ heading into the week, with Tesla among the top 10 most active tickers by message volume early Monday. 

Some retail investors speculated the stock could cross $500 by President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, while others believe it might happen even sooner.

Tesla’s recent momentum has been driven partly by optimism around regulatory changes under the incoming Trump administration, which may favor CEO Elon Musk’s ventures, especially in autonomous driving. 

That led Tesla to hit a record high (split-adjusted) of around $488 in December, but some profit-taking and disappointing quarterly delivery numbers led to a bit of a slide.

Some analysts have raised concerns. According to The Fly, JPMorgan last week flagged risks from Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales and production figures, which tracked below consensus, leading to downward revisions of 2024 earnings per share estimates.

JPMorgan warned of potential headwinds amounting to $3.2 billion — around 40% of Tesla’s 2024 earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) estimate — due to regulatory changes, including the expiration of the Clean Vehicle Credit and reduced zero-emission vehicle credit sales in California. 

Tesla "appears to have the most to lose from the shifting regulatory backdrop," JPMorgan noted.

The brokerage reiterated its ‘Underweight’ rating with a $135 price target.

Tesla gained over 64% last year and is up 5% since the start of 2025, reflecting optimism despite mixed sentiment from analysts.

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