Sage Therapeutics Stock: JPMorgan Sees 8% Downside After Supernus Buyout Terms

Analysts have also noted that the relatively low breakup fee may leave room for a competing offer, possibly from Biogen.

JPMorgan cut its price target on Sage Therapeutics to $8.5 from $11 based on the recently announced buyout by Supernus Pharmaceuticals, representing an 8.5% downside from the last close.

The research firm maintained a 'Neutral' rating on the stock.

Last week, Supernus said it would acquire Sage for $8.5 per share in cash, plus a contingent value right (CVR) worth up to $3.5, based on commercial milestones for Zurzuvae, an FDA-approved treatment for postpartum depression co-developed with Biogen. 

The total transaction value of up to $12 per share reflects a 79% premium to Sage’s last closing price before the announcement.

The deal, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, is intended to expand Supernus’ neuropsychiatry portfolio and could reduce annual costs by up to $200 million.

The company also guaranteed a cash payout at closing, excluding value from the CVR, which remains contingent on future sales performance. 

Several other firms adjusted their price targets in response to the Supernus deal: Piper Sandler lowered its target to $8.50 from $9, while Truist raised its target to $9 from $8 and Canaccord increased its target to $8.50 from $8, each maintaining a ‘Hold’ or ‘Neutral’ rating. 

BofA removed its rating altogether, stating that Sage shares are no longer trading on fundamentals following the acquisition announcement.

H.C. Wainwright noted the $22.4 million breakup fee may not be large enough to prevent a competing offer, particularly from Biogen, which already co-commercializes Zurzuvae with Sage in the U.S.

In January, Sage Therapeutics’ board unanimously rejected Biogen's unsolicited offer to acquire all outstanding shares for $7.22 per share. 

The company said the offer “significantly undervalued” Sage and was not in the best interest of shareholders.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

Shares of Sage Therapeutics closed up 1.9% at $9.3 on Friday. The stock has risen 60.9% so far in 2025. 

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