Palantir Bulls Pile In As Anthropic Feuds With Trump's Department Of War Over AI Safety — But There’s A Catch

Anthropic is pushing back against government demands for broad military access to its AI systems, a stance that could steer some federal AI business towards rivals such as Palantir.

• “In a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values,” Anthropic CEO said.
• Meanwhile, retail investors believe the situation with Anthropic could be an opportunity for Palantir, which is already a key AI vendor for the government.
• HSBC and UBS recently advised buying PLTR shares on the dip.

AI startup Anthropic has put its foot down firmly amid government pressure to grant the U.S. military broader access to its AI systems, a potential flashpoint that some believe could bolster Palantir Technologies' prospects as an AI analytics firm and key defense contractor.

“Anthropic understands that the Department of War, not private companies, makes military decisions,” CEO Dario Amodei said in a statement on Thursday. “However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.” Two specific use cases, which the company is not ceding to, are: mass surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous weapons with no human in the loop.

PLTR Will Emerge Winner?

The Anthropic situation has promoted a string of bullish commentary for Palantir on Stocktwits.

A user speculated that the U.S. Department of War might award additional business to Palantir rather than to Anthropic. “$PLTR hegseth to award Palantir with the 2 billion contract as opposed to Anthropic,” said this person, referring to Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of War.

The Pentagon last summer awarded defense contracts worth up to $200 million each to four AI firms, namely, Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI. Anthropic was the first cleared for classified military networks, working with partners such as Palantir, while the others are currently limited to unclassified environments.

Another questioned whether Anthropic should even receive government business “when it is getting hacked and ripped off by china lately.” Last week, Anthropic accused three Chinese AI companies – DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and MiniMax – for setting up more than 24,000 fraudulent accounts with its Claude AI model to help their own systems catch up.

Meanwhile, traders are increasingly expecting a bounce in the stock price following the company’s blowout results and analyst backing. Stocktwits users said bears will lose everything, and that the stock might run to $170 in no time. 

There’s A Risk Factor For PLTR Too

The government’s position is that it wants to use Anthropic’s AI technology, or that of any of its other suppliers, without restriction. Hegseth has threatened to invoke the Defense Production Act to force Anthropic to hand over its models or designate the company a supply-chain risk. 

The latter would require every Pentagon contractor, including Palantir, which runs Claude inside its Maven Smart System battle management platform, to certify they don't use Anthropic products. 

“In a worst-case scenario, that could make Anthropic a nonstarter for a whole huge segment of the American economy and could be almost fatal to their business,” Gregory Allen, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Wall Street Largely Optimistic On PLTR

Earlier this week, HSBC and UBS analysts reiterated their bullish stance on the company.

HSBC said enterprise software firms, including Palantir, "will not be threatened by AI," but would rather embed AI into their software platforms to create superior, competitive offerings. Software valuation levels are at "historic lows, even though the sector is poised to expand massively," the research firm added.

UBS, which upgraded its rating on PLRT stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral,’ said the shares are trading at a “very attractive” level, noting that the company sits “at the nexus of the two most powerful spending trends — AI and data.”

Rosenblatt on Thursday initiated coverage of Palantir with a 'Buy' rating and a $150 price target, implying nearly 10% upside from current levels, and said it views the company as "market-disrupting, uniquely positioned AI software leader." The company has a sustainable growth trajectory and strong margin leverage, the analyst told investors in a research note, adding that it, too, sees an attractive entry point.

Like other software and AI stocks, Palantir shares are caught up in a broad selloff; the stock is down about 35% from its November peak. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<