OSCR Stock Hits 5-Year High: Oscar Sees 'Healthy Tailwinds' In 2026 On Potential Upside To Guidance

Despite ACA market challenges and exits by Cigna and Aetna, Oscar sees competitor withdrawals as a potential opportunity for growth in 2027.

• CFO Scott Blackley said that 2026 is off to a "very strong start," with membership tracking as expected and May utilization better than feared.
• Oscar's final 2025 Wakely report came in $130 million favorable to first-quarter accruals.
• Blackley said he has yet to see the negative industry trends many expected for the 2026 ACA market.

Shares of Oscar Health (OSCR) surged to a five-year high on Monday after the insurer cited "healthy tailwinds" across its business and suggested that favorable industry trends could drive upside this year.

OSCR stock jumped 12% on Monday, logging its third straight session of gains. 

OSCR 'Healthy Tailwinds' Drive 2026 Outlook

CFO Scott Blackley said at the Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference on Monday that 2026 is off to a "very strong start," with membership tracking as expected and May healthcare utilization running better than feared. He also said that Oscar's final 2025 Wakely report came in $130 million favorable to first-quarter accruals.

"Behind that affirmation of our current guidance, we do see some pretty healthy tailwinds in the performance of the company," Blackley said. The company is awaiting the first 2026 Wakely report, due later this month. Blackley said that early industry data suggest market morbidity, a key measure of the health risk profile of insured members, is likely to come in below expectations.

"If indeed we see that market morbidity come in favorable, as the Wakely early report had suggested, that gives us an opportunity for some upside for the year," Blackley said. "I keep looking for some piece of bad news about 2026 market morbidity, and at this point, just haven't seen any."

OSCR’s Strong Results Despite Industry Challenges

Oscar's upbeat comments come on the back of a strong first quarter, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.07 beating estimates of $1.10. Revenue came in at $4.65 billion versus estimates of $4.92 billion, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) hit $727 million. Membership grew 56% from a year ago to 3.17 million, while the medical loss ratio improved to 70.5% from 75.4%. 

Oscar's optimism comes amid ongoing challenges in the Affordable Care Act market after the phaseout of enhanced federal subsidies. Insurers have warned that rising premiums could push healthier members out of the market, leading to higher healthcare costs and lower enrollment. The pressure has already prompted some carriers to retreat. The Cigna Group recently announced plans to exit the ACA market in 2027, while Aetna exited at the start of 2026 after years of losses.

Blackley acknowledged expectations that the ACA market could contract by 20% to 30% this year but also pointed to competitor withdrawals as a potential growth opportunity. "There are some carrier exits this year. We have a pretty good overlap with the markets where those carriers are, that gives us an opportunity for 2027," Blackley said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About OSCR?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for OSCR was ‘extremely bullish’ amid a 1,283% surge in 24-hour message volumes.

One user noted a “Textbook weekly base breakout in play.” They also added: “Price showing strong relative strength over the last few sessions-this isn’t just noise, buyers are stepping in.” 

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Another user said, “Let $OSCR be a lesson. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is selling a breakout winner because they expect a cheaper re-entry that never comes.”

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OSCR stock has jumped 78% over the past year. 

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