Novavax Stock Hits Over 1-Year High: Is Sanofi’s Flu-COVID Shot The Post-Pandemic Growth Driver?

Novavax said it is pivoting toward a partnership-led model, including a licensing deal with Pfizer for its Matrix-M technology.

• The company highlighted Sanofi’s flu-COVID combination shot as a key long-term driver.
• Q4 revenue rose 67% to $147 million, while full-year revenue climbed 65% to $1.12 billion.
• Internal pipeline programs targeting C. difficile, shingles and RSV combinations are advancing, with at least one candidate potentially entering clinical trials by 2027.

Shares of Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) hit a more than one-year high on Thursday as investors turned their focus to future growth beyond standalone COVID vaccines, led by its partnership strategy and Sanofi’s flu-COVID combination shot.

NVAX stock jumped over 17% on Thursday, but slipped 1.3% in extended trading.

Novavax Bets On Combo Vaccines

During its fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings call, the biotech company said it has moved away from its earlier structure centered on standalone COVID vaccine commercialization and is now focused on expanding its pipeline through partnership-led growth.

“We have evolved Novavax from a vertically integrated global commercial organization with a singular focus on COVID to a company that is focused on driving both near and long-term value with our proven technology platform via partnering and R&D,” CEO John Jacobs said on the call.

A key pillar of the strategy is Sanofi’s development of combination vaccines that pair its flu products with Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid. The company noted that it would be eligible for a $125 million milestone upon the start of the Phase 3 study for the program.

Novavax also pointed to positive early-stage data shared by Sanofi, and added that market research suggests a large share of people who already receive both vaccines would consider switching to a single combination shot.

Looking ahead, Novavax expects the 2026-2027 season to mark the first full commercial cycle in which Sanofi markets Nuvaxovid globally. “So yes, the upcoming season looks very promising,” said Elaine O'Hara, chief strategy officer.

Pfizer Matrix Deal Expands Pipeline

In January, the company signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer allowing the use of Matrix-M in two vaccine programs, including one already identified. The company noted that additional material transfer agreements were signed this month, including one with an oncology-focused partner.

“We're seeing that once vaccine-focused companies experiment with our adjuvant, they often come back to us to explore more broadly,” the company said. “Our Matrix technology is a cornerstone of our partnering model.” 

Additionally, early-stage internal vaccine programs targeting C. difficile, shingles and RSV combinations are advancing, with at least one candidate potentially entering clinical testing as early as 2027.

The company said that the broader aim is to build a diversified set of recurring revenue streams tied to partnerships and future commercial programs.

NVAX Q4 Review

Novavax reported Q4 revenue of $147 million, marking a 67% year-on-year increase, and also beating consensus estimates of $90.26 million. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.11, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.55, according to Fiscal AI data.

Full-year revenue rose 65% to $1.12 billion, driven largely by $625 million in Nuvaxovid-related sales tied to settlements of earlier advance purchase agreements.

Quarterly product sales stood at $39 million, while full-year product sales climbed to $685 million. Revenue recognized under the Sanofi partnership, including milestone and royalty payments, totaled $98 million in Q4 and $386 million for the year. The company said it earned $225 million in milestone payments from the Sanofi collaboration in 2025. 

Looking ahead, Novavax expects adjusted total revenue of $230 million to $270 million in 2026.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NVAX was ‘extremely bullish’ amid a 580% surge in 24-hour message volume.

One user said, “Institutional and Retail FOMO buying will start the squeeze.”

Another user said, “Friday should see continuing strong Buying pressure coupled with urgent short covering as well.”

NVAX stock has jumped 67% year-to-date.

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