NIO Stock Slides Overnight Despite 500th Guangdong Swap Station, But Goldman Sees 96% Upside On Profit Turnaround

Goldman’s bullish case cites fast delivery growth, premium margins and a potential profit and free-cash-flow turnaround through the rest of 2026.

• Nio delivered 109,178 vehicles in the third quarter, up 25.4% year-over-year, including 37,408 in September.
• Nio’s Guangdong battery-swap network reached 500 stations after six new fifth-generation stations opened across six cities.
• A Weibo guide covering nine Nio models estimates ET9 buyers could receive up to 169,900 yuan in corporate-tax benefits, reclaim 88,400 yuan in VAT and save 15,000 yuan in purchase tax.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) slid 3% overnight heading into Monday despite the company’s latest push to attract buyers and expand its swap network, while Goldman Sachs sees a potential profit turnaround and nearly 96% upside from current levels. 

NIO’s U.S.-listed shares rose 6% last week, their strongest weekly gain since late July, ending a six-week losing streak.

Goldman Sees Profit And Cash-Flow Turnaround

Goldman Sachs’ $7 target implies about 96% upside from current levels after the bank raised its price target from $6.10 and maintained its ‘Buy’ rating. It had upgraded Nio to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ in July.

The firm said that Nio can combine rapid delivery growth with stronger margins and a turnaround in profit and free cash flow through the rest of 2026. Goldman pointed to 109,178 vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, up 25.4% year over year, and 37,408 deliveries in September as evidence of momentum. The bank also added that Nio’s valuation did not reflect its improving fundamentals.

Nio Marks 500 Swap Stations In Guangdong

Nio recently marked its 500th battery-swap station in Guangdong after six new fifth-generation stations opened on Sunday, one each in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Huizhou, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhuhai. The company said drivers in the province have completed more than 17 million swaps, about 13% of its national total.

The network serves both urban and highway routes. Guangdong has 101 highway swap stations, which have handled more than 3 million swaps, and Nio says its coverage extends to all 122 county-level areas in the province. The company reported 4,176 swap stations among 9,584 charging and swap stations nationwide as of Sunday. It also said its vehicle sales in Guangdong rose 76.3% year-over-year in the first eight months of 2026.

Nio’s Tax Pitch Covers Nine Models

A tax chart circulating on Weibo outlines potential benefits for companies buying nine Nio models, from the ET5, priced at 298,000 yuan ($44,530), to the ET9, priced at 768,000 yuan. It was shared by an account associated with an Nio frontline sales adviser, according to EV. 

For the ET9, the chart estimates a corporate income-tax benefit of up to 169,900 yuan, or about $25,300. It separately lists up to 88,400 yuan in value-added tax that a qualifying company may reclaim and 15,000 yuan in vehicle purchase-tax savings.

China halves vehicle purchase tax for eligible new-energy passenger cars bought in 2026 and 2027, with the reduction capped at 15,000 yuan per vehicle. A separate policy allows eligible businesses to deduct the cost of qualifying equipment worth up to 5 million yuan in the year of purchase through 2027. The guide calls for purchases by Dec.31, although the policies run through the end of 2027.

Newer Nio Models Lift Deliveries

NIO Inc. delivered 37,408 vehicles across its brands in September, up 7.7% from a year earlier, and 300,301 in the first three quarters, according to the company. The core NIO brand accounted for 21,318 September deliveries. Some established models have been weaker: the ES6 and EC6 recorded year-over-year delivery declines of about 66% and 72%, respectively, in August.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About NIO?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NIO jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a week ago amid a 21% rise in 24-hour message volumes.

One bullish user said, “$NIO If Nio swapped 1.2 million last week and they will sell over 400,000 cars this years x the future sales of exponentially more, even if a lot of the first cars are free swaps, so what?  The future cars x the swaps will be an exponential future revenue.  Look at Tesla's free charging, that's long gone now and how's Tesla doing?”

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Another user said, “$NIO has so much more to show for at this SP as compared to over 5 years ago. And then in less than a year the SP surges over 15x. Certainly hyped up then then but now it’s all in reach. They are a force to be reckoned with in the EV industry. New ATH SP on its way in time. Another 15x swing could be quite fast. Don’t miss out on the bargain now.”

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Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has declined 30% year-to-date.

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