Nifty Watch: Support At 25,000 Holds For Now, But SEBI RAs Warn Of Breakdown Risk

Analysts advise caution as Nifty trades in a tight range. Sectoral plays in auto and pharma are favored while FMCG and NBFCs remain weak.

Indian equity markets ended lower on Thursday, with the Nifty index struggling to find direction amid expiry volatility. 

SEBI-registered analyst Pradeep Carpenter noted that markets are likely to remain range-bound to volatile unless a clear breakout or breakdown is seen. The directional trend will depend heavily on movement around key technical levels: 25,109 for Nifty and 57,077 for Bank Nifty.

Nifty remains in a sideways zone, and 25,085 is a crucial key level to watch, he added. A break below this level could trigger further downside pressure. On the upside, a move above 25,132 may invite short-covering and upside momentum. He expects choppy movement with limited conviction within this range.

Nifty Bank showed relative resilience on Thursday but remained at a critical juncture. Carpenter observed that a sustained move above 57,072 may signal strength and a bounce back. But failure to hold above 57,083 could lead to renewed selling. 

For Friday’s session, he advised traders to avoid aggressive longs until key levels are broken on the upside. Carpenter sees potential buying opportunities on dips in the auto and pharma sectors, but cautions on FMCG, retail, and NBFCs until a clear base is formed.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that the market collapsed during the expiry session, despite the price action and open interest (OI) data indicating a positive trend. Looking ahead, 25,000 remains a key support level and is currently holding firm. 

He highlighted that any significant fall can be expected only if the Nifty index breaks this level. If it does breach 25,000, then the attention shifts to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support at 24,950, followed by the 24,920-24,900 range. On the upside, Sharma identified 25,100 as a major resistance level on Friday. If breached, he expects a potential move towards 25,140-25,180-25,200 and higher.

Analyst Ashish Kyal said that if the Nifty index closes below 24,980 on a 15-minute timeframe, it could fall to 24,920 levels.The market has been indecisive, with no clear direction established. A break above 25,120 is required for a move to 25,180-25,220, according to him. Until a clear pattern emerges, it is advisable to trade within this intraday range.

And Prabhat Mittal has identified Nifty support at 24,882, with resistance at 25,220. For the Bank Nifty, he sees support at 56,600 and resistance at 57,400.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<