Nifty In Wait & Watch Mode: SEBI RAs Eye 24,860–25,000 For Next Moves

Nifty continues to trade in a narrow band. Rising volatility and high options premiums suggest a cautious, range-bound move this week.

Indian markets began the week on a muted note, with the Nifty holding the 24,700 mark on Monday. Despite the sharp intra-day recovery, the index struggled to reclaim its short-term trend levels and continues to show signs of consolidation within a narrowing range. 

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel highlighted that the Nifty has consistently faced resistance around the 24,860–25,000 zone on the daily chart, aligning with a key downward-sloping trendline drawn from the September 2024 highs. 

He believes that bullish conviction may remain limited until the index delivers a decisive close above 24,860. 

The immediate support level has been pegged at 24,650, and the key support zone at 24,500 — a breach below this could invite fresh selling pressure. Chandel sees broader support between 24,300 and 24,200.

On the upside, he pegs immediate resistance at 24,860. 25,000–25,200 remains a major hurdle zone for the Nifty; bears have been aggressively defending this level. 

 Chandel cautions that short-term volatility is on the rise. Traders should be prepared for erratic intraday swings, especially before the weekly options expiry.

Additionally, option premiums are significantly inflated, signaling a seller’s market. Option buyers may find it challenging to capture value unless there's a strong directional move. 

 Overall, Chandel believes that until a clear breakout or breakdown emerges, the trading range between 24,500–25,000 may dominate. 

Momentum remains neutral with Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 55. 

Traders are advised to stick to defined levels and avoid directional bias. He also recommends focusing on option selling strategies (like straddles or iron condors) to benefit from rich premiums. Maintain tight risk controls, given the elevated volatility.

Analyst Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services also echoes a similar view; He highlighted that on the 15-minute chart, Nifty has been forming a downward channel over the past week, which suggests that a breakout above that level could trigger a bullish move. 

The 24,800 level remains the immediate resistance. According to him, a sustained move above this may take the Nifty towards 24,880 and 25,000.

On the downside, if the Nifty falls below 24,800, there will be a constant threat of selling on rallies because of technical hurdles. 

Sharma pegs immediate support at 24,660-24,680 (which aligns with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average and a previous trough).

A break below this level for a second time could lead to a correction. He also advises keeping an eye on Sensex expiry and high option premiums, with significant moves on either side raising the likelihood of a muted expiry session.

And analyst Krishna Pathak adds that the Nifty 50 remains in a neutral-to-bullish zone, awaiting a clear breakout. Traders and investors are advised to watch the ₹24,755 to ₹24,800 level closely for directional clarity.

Pathak sees immediate support between 24,645 and 24,660. A breakout above ₹24,800 may trigger momentum toward ₹24,920 to ₹25,100, where a supply zone has been marked.

On the downside, he believes that a fall below ₹24,600 could drag the index to ₹24,550–₹24,500.

Market participants are advised to watch for a clear directional move with volume confirmation. Until then, expect range-bound action with volatility. 

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