Nasdaq Eyes ‘Yes-Or-No’ Contracts On Major Indexes, Steps Into Prediction Market

Unlike CFTC-regulated prediction platforms, Nasdaq's proposed contracts would be regulated by the SEC.

• Nasdaq would reportedly be entering the prediction market space by proposing binary “Outcome Related Options” tied to the Nasdaq 100 Index.
• The contracts would allow traders to take yes-or-no positions on defined index outcomes, with fixed payouts.
• The proposed products were pending SEC approval and would mark Nasdaq’s first direct move into prediction-style trading.

Nasdaq Inc. is reportedly planning to enter the prediction market by launching binary-style contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 Index.

According to a Bloomberg report, the exchange operator filed a proposed rule change with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to introduce an “Outcome Related Options.” The contracts would allow traders to take a yes-or-no position on whether a specified index-related event could occur, with payouts determined by the outcome of that binary proposition.

If approved, the products would trade on both the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Micro Index. The contracts are expected to be priced between $0.01 and $1.00, creating a fixed-risk structure in which traders either receive a full payout or lose their premium depending on the outcome.

Wall Street Moves Closer To Event Trading

The move would mark Nasdaq’s first formal step into prediction markets, a segment that has gained traction in recent years through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. These venues have popularized event-based contracts tied to elections, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical developments.

Unlike the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated prediction platforms, Nasdaq’s proposed contracts would fall under SEC oversight as listed options products. 

The Nasdaq 100, which tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the exchange, like Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA), is already among the most actively traded indices globally. Options tied to the index saw significant growth, particularly among short-term traders using weekly and daily expiries.

Nasdaq’s proposal is yet to receive the SEC approval.

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