Michael Burry Sees The Following Stocks At Most Risk Ahead Of Tax Loss Harvesting Season

Famed "Big Short" investor highlights his tax-loss harvesting strategy towards holdings with downside pressure across retail and financial sectors, and Chinese equities.

• Burry is mitigating near-term tax selling in underperforming holdings.
• The investor foresees an early end to the artificial intelligence boom, positioning for a 2000–2003 style value equity revival. 
• Significant capital is being directed into discounted Chinese equities like BYD, while maintaining a cautious stance on Alibaba amidst its infrastructure spending. 

Renowned value investor Michael Burry outlined his fourth-quarter portfolio maneuvers in an update on his Cassandra Unchained Substack platform on Monday, revealing how he is positioning around tax-loss harvesting headwinds while building long-term exposure to deeply discounted sectors.

Burry noted that the final quarter routinely brings heightened selling pressure on underperforming equities as investors sell underperforming assets at a loss to offset capital gains. 

Retail & Proxy Swaps: Lululemon And Deckers

In the fashion space, Burry detailed a paired strategy involving Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) and Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK). While expressing long-term conviction in Lululemon, he executed a tax-loss sale and temporarily replaced it with Deckers as an industry substitute.

Burry expects both footwear and apparel brands to move in tandem during the mandatory 30-day wash-sale period. He plans to repurchase Lululemon once the wash-sale restriction lapses, though he indicated he may retain Deckers concurrently depending on overarching sector exposure at that time.

Government-Sponsored Enterprises: Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac

Burry acknowledged severe downward momentum triggered by a regulatory news vacuum and delays in policy actions in government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC).

To capture tax losses without forfeiting total sector participation, Burry completely liquidated his Fannie Mae position and consolidated the capital into Freddie Mac shares. He noted plans to execute the reverse trade next month to maintain continuous positioning ahead of any definitive ruling regarding senior preferred liquidation preferences, an event he believes could trigger a sharp squeeze on short sellers.

Financial Services & Holding Tight: Fiserv

Regarding financial services technology provider Fiserv Inc. (FISV), Burry opted for a passive stance. Admitting his entry point was suboptimal relative to intrinsic value models, he noted that the current valuation offers low-teens annualized return potential over a long horizon. Lacking a direct proxy for a tax swap, he confirmed he is holding the position steadily through current volatility without buying or selling.

Consumer Staples & Healthcare: Sprouts And Zoetis

To manage risk in out-of-favor consumer and veterinary markets, Burry adjusted his stakes in grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM) and animal health specialist Zoetis Inc. (ZTS).

After both names touched new lows, Burry replaced direct equity holdings with far-out-of-the-money LEAP calls expiring in 2028 and 2029. The strategy provides leveraged upside participation while limiting capital commitment. 

Macro Offsets & Chinese Equities: MetLife, BYD, JD.com, And Alibaba

Burry added long-dated 2029 out-of-the-money put options on insurer MetLife Inc. (MET), citing potential stress signals emerging within private credit and private equity valuations.

Concurrently, Burry expanded his allocations in Chinese markets, characterizing Hong Kong-listed equities as residing in a historically prolonged bear market where business fundamentals remain resilient despite depressed share prices. 

He established a sizable position in Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD Co. following a price pullback and added far-out-of-the-money 2029 call options on e-commerce firm JD.com Inc. (JD). Conversely, he is withholding fresh capital from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), citing concerns over recent equity issuances used to fund its corporate AI infrastructure buildout.

LULU, DECK Stock: Retail View 

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was ‘neutral’ on LULU stock and was ‘bearish’ on DECK stock with ‘normal’ message volumes. 

LULU stock has lost about 55%, and DECK stock slipped 23% year-to-date. 

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