LLY Vs NVO: Foundayo Beats Novo’s Oral Semaglutide On Weight Loss, Blood Sugar In New Finding

Lilly’s Foundayo 17.2 mg achieved a 1.5% greater weight loss and a 0.3% greater reduction in A1C than oral semaglutide 25 mg after 52 weeks.

• Foundayo 17.2 mg reduced A1C by 2.2% and body weight by 9.2%.
• The latest findings were presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes.
• The obesity drug market is expected to grow to $114 billion by 2030.

Eli Lilly (LLY) was in the spotlight on Tuesday after a new analysis suggested that its once-daily Foundayo pill could deliver greater weight loss and reductions in blood sugar levels than Novo’s (NVO) higher-dose oral semaglutide in adults with type 2 diabetes.

LLY shares edged 0.3% higher in pre-market and are on track for a fifth monthly gain in six months. Meanwhile, NVO, down 1%, is on track for its biggest monthly fall since February 2026.

What Did The Trials Show?

The analysis, which was presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), drew on Lilly’s Achieve-3 study and Novo’s Pioneer Plus trial.

Lilly said Foundayo 17.2 mg saw 1.5% bigger weight loss and a 0.3% greater reduction in A1C, a measure of blood sugar levels, than oral semaglutide 25 mg after 52 weeks. However, it is important to note that the results came from an indirect comparison of separate trials rather than a head-to-head study.

Foundayo 17.2 mg reduced A1C by 2.2% and body weight by 9.2%, compared with reductions of 1.4% and 5.3%, respectively, for oral semaglutide after 52 weeks. Novo uses oral semaglutide 25 mg as its blockbuster Wegovy pill for obesity, which demonstrated mean weight loss of 16.6%.

Lilly, Novo Fight For A Rapidly Growing Market

The two pharmaceutical behemoths are locked in a competition to capture market share in the rapidly growing obesity treatment market. Goldman Sachs Research recently raised its forecast for global obesity-drug sales in 2030 to $114 billion, with oral drugs expected to account for roughly 40% of the market.

Lilly has already made a strong mark in the injectables market. Second-quarter (Q2) sales of Mounjaro nearly doubled to $9.94 billion, while Zepbound sales jumped 46% to $4.93 billion. Foundayo, launched in Q2, has generated $98 million in sales so far.

Novo has generated strong traction with its pill. Its Wegovy pill surpassed 265,000 weekly U.S. prescriptions by mid-July and has generated more than 5 million prescriptions since launch earlier this year.

But Foundayo is quickly gaining ground. Earlier this month, Lilly reportedly stated that Foundayo has already accounted for more than 30% of new U.S. patients starting oral obesity treatments.

Retail’s Take On LLY Vs NVO

Retail sentiment surrounding LLY on Stocktwits turned ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ a day earlier, while sentiment for NVO turned ‘bullish’ from ‘extremely bullish.’

One user highlighted the importance of Cagrisema for Novo. Cagrisema is Novo’s new weight loss drug, currently under review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), with a decision expected later this year.

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LLY shares have significantly outperformed NVO so far this year, gaining around 10% compared to NVO’s 26% slump.

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