Crude Oil Could Soon Join Bitcoin, Gold In ‘Rollover’ If Iran War Extends, Says Analyst

Macro investor Raoul Pal blamed the recent risk asset pullback on an oil-driven liquidity squeeze and a stronger dollar.

• Mike McGlone's chart showed that Bitcoin's 500-week moving average has rolled over, which signals weaker market momentum.
• McGlone warned that crude oil could follow Bitcoin and gold lower amid potential policy reversal after the U.S. midterms.
• Unwinding some market moves tied to the current administration "could dominate late 2026 and 2027,” he wrote in a post on X.

Crude oil may join “rollovers” in Bitcoin (BTC) and gold if the war with Iran goes on for longer, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone. 

McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, posted a chart on X showing that the the 50-week average for Bitcoin peaked roughly a year after the 2024 election and turned lower, while the averages for gold and the S&P 500 kept climbing. "Rollovers in Bitcoin and gold may gain a companion in crude oil," he wrote. 

McGlone added that if prediction markets are correct about Democrats winning on Tuesday, unwinding some market moves tied to the current administration "could dominate late 2026 and 2027."

Is Bitcoin Facing A Liquidity Problem?

Meanwhile, Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, took a different view. According to him, the recent pullback in AI stocks reflects slower global liquidity growth after an oil shock, not weakening demand.

In a post on X, he said that the oil shock drove up the dollar and short-term rates, tightening financial conditions. He noted that global liquidity growth has slowed each month since March. 

"The market is pricing in a pause in liquidity," Pal said. If spending on AI holds up, Pal forecast that the wider risk rally may have more room to run, and that Bitcoin's drop looks more like a pause.

Pal said crypto needs the same thing to turn around. "For crypto, really, we want that excess liquidity to rise," he said in a separate post. "We need the dollar weaker."

He said rising rates, a firmer dollar and higher oil prices have tightened conditions, "and we need those to dissipate."Pal said relaxing them would "ignite more ability to take risk for more capital to come into markets overall.”

Bitcoin’s price was trading around $77,700, flat over the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, it was one of the top trending crypto tickers at the time of writing. Retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘extremely bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day.

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