CMG Stock Drops After TD Cowen Downgrade Ahead Of Earnings, Analyst Warns Of ‘Challenging’ 2027

Chipotle faces questions about its sales momentum ahead of its October 28 earnings report, as TD Cowen forecasts below-consensus same-store sales growth for Q4 2026 and 2027.

• According to TheFly, TD Cowen lowered its price target to $32 from $44 and downgraded CMG to ‘Hold’ rating from ‘Buy’.
• Deutsche Bank maintained its ‘Buy’ rating but cut its price target to $45 from $51, citing store-level checks that showed price increases at about 20% of locations.
• Chipotle is set to report Q3 2026 results on October 28 after the market closes, with analysts expecting revenue of $3.28 billion and earnings of $0.29 per share.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares drew investor attention on Wednesday after a downgrade from TD Cowen and a price target cut from Deutsche Bank, adding to Wall Street’s bearish temperament ahead of the company’s third quarter earnings next week.

According to TheFly, TD Cowen downgraded Chipotle to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ and cut its price target to $32 from $44, while Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $45 from $51 but maintained a ‘Buy’ rating.

CMG shares traded 5% lower at the time of writing. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Chipotle shifted to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ territory over the past day.

TD Cowen Flags Weak October Sales

TD Cowen said it was concerned that Chipotle’s October sales are shaping up to miss the fourth-quarter (Q4) inflection point it had previously expected, despite an easier year-over-year comparison. The firm now models below-consensus same-store sales for both Q4 and fiscal 2027.

TD Cowen said delivering the consensus estimate of 3% same-store sales growth in 2027 “requires less proven sales drivers.” The firm described 2027 as a challenging year for Chipotle.

According to a report published by Investing.com,TD Cowen expects Chipotle’s third-quarter results to come in slightly above consensus. The firm forecasts same-store sales growth of 2.5% in 2028, compared with the consensus estimate of 3.4%.

For Q4, the analyst also cited menu innovation, new marketing campaigns and value offers through Chipotle Rewards among the company’s sales initiatives, the report added.

Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy Rating

Separately, Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman lowered the firm’s price target on Chipotle to $45 from $51 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating as part of a third quarter (Q3) earnings preview reshuffle.

Deutsche Bank’s latest checks suggest Chipotle has introduced price increases at about 20% of its stores over the past nine weeks. The firm estimates the increases average around 3% and continues to expect price increases in the 2.5%-3% range for the third quarter.

Chipotle is scheduled to report its Q3 2026 results next Wednesday, after the market closes. Analysts expect revenue of $3.28 billion and earnings of $0.29 per share, according to estimates compiled by Fiscal A.I.

According to Koyfin data, 23 of the 35 analysts covering CMG rate the stock ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’, while the remaining 12 rate it ‘Hold’.

Other Analysts Also Lower Chipotle Price Targets

Earlier this week, Citi lowered its price target on Chipotle to $43 from $45, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The firm expects a “noisy” earnings report due to Salmonella and Cyclospora concerns and said a recovery in customer traffic is “difficult to read.” Gordon Haskett also lowered its price target on Chipotle, to $36 from $42, while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating.

Last week, Raymond James lowered its price target to $37 from $42.50 while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm expects third-quarter revenue to rise 9.7% year over year, reflecting 78 net new restaurant openings and same-store sales growth of 2%.

CMG shares have dropped over 24% year-to-date.

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