Can’t Grab SpaceX IPO Stock? Supplier Behind 70% Of Its Launches May Be 'Low-Risk' Alternative, Says Analyst

SpaceX's IPO has reportedly attracted demand far exceeding available shares, with only about 7% of stock expected to be freely tradable after listing.

• Morningstar says investors chasing SpaceX's record-breaking IPO may be overlooking Linde as a way to benefit from the space boom.
• The brokerage called Linde a "low-risk play" on the space race and noted the company supports 70% of all SpaceX launches.
• The firm believes the SpaceX IPO will shine a spotlight on the rocket-launch supply chain, which has historically been overlooked by investors.

As investors rush to gain exposure to SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, an analyst suggests one of the biggest winners from the commercial space boom may not be a space stock at all.

Interest in SpaceX's public debut has been exceptionally strong, with demand far outstripping the stock available to investors. The company plans to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion at a valuation of $1.8 trillion. 

If completed as expected, the offering would eclipse previous IPO records, including Saudi Aramco's landmark listing. Since only 7% of the shares will be available for public trading, investors have been aggressively searching for alternative ways to participate in the IPO.

The Hidden Supplier Behind SpaceX

Morningstar equity analyst Krzysztof Smalec recently highlighted industrial gas giant Linde Plc. (LIN) as a "low-risk play" on the space race, arguing that investors are underestimating the company's exposure to SpaceX's rapidly growing launch activity and Starship ambitions. Linde is SpaceX's primary supplier of liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen, and other industrial gases used at launch sites in Texas and Florida. The company recently said it supports 70% of SpaceX launches, making it one of the most important suppliers in the rocket maker’s ecosystem.

"Linde is currently SpaceX's main partner," the analyst said, adding that the company has expanded capacity around SpaceX facilities to support future launch demand. The brokerage also noted that LIN shares trade about 6% below its fair value estimate, calling the stock "an attractive entry point" for investors seeking a lower-risk way to gain exposure to the commercial space boom.

Morningstar believes the biggest opportunity lies in SpaceX's transition toward Starship. "We believe Linde is poised to capitalize on SpaceX's ambitious launch cadence plans, as well as its transition from Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets to more propellant-intensive Starship megarockets," the brokerage said.

Linde recently started a new air separation unit in Brownsville, Texas, to support Starship launches from Starbase, while another expansion in Florida is expected to begin operating in 2027.

U.K.-based Linde was formed through the merger of Germany's Linde AG and U.S.-based Praxair in 2018. The company has posted steady growth since then, with revenue rising to $34 billion in 2025 from $14.8 billion in 2018, while operating profit increased to $8.9 billion from $5.2 billion. Its market cap currently stands at $235 billion, jumping from just $91 billion after the merger.

According to Koyfin consensus estimates, Linde carries a consensus 'Strong Buy' rating from 27 analysts, with an average price target of $545.04, implying a 7% upside from current levels. Analysts currently include 22 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings, compared with four 'Holds' and one 'Sell.' Currently, LIN trades at 27.9x expected earnings over the next 12 months and 18x forward EBITDA.

SpaceX IPO Puts Supply Chain In Focus

Industrial gas firms have supported space launches for decades, but the business has remained a relatively small and often overlooked part of their operations: "We expect the SpaceX IPO to change this, putting a major spotlight on the rocket launch supply chain," Morningstar said.

“Although we estimate that the space end market currently accounts for only a low-single-digit percentage of revenue for the three industrial gas firms we cover, we expect it to become a meaningful driver of revenue growth, particularly for Linde LIN, the world’s largest industrial gas producer,” Morningstar added. 

Morningstar estimates that space-related business currently accounts for only 1% of Linde's revenue, but forecasts that figure could rise to 8% by 2040. "We believe the market underappreciates the upside potential of SpaceX's rapidly increasing launch cadence," Morningstar said. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SpaceX And LIN?

On Stocktwits, SpaceX drew 'extremely bullish' sentiment with 'extremely high' message volumes, while LIN was rated 'neutral' on 'high' chatter.

One user said, “$LIN solid financials, a GREAT technical setup, pricing power for essential forms of energy including those critical to AI, SpaceX’s primary supplier for industrial gas, ~93% institutional ownership leading to a relatively low true retail share float and ever-shrinking count of it due to aggressively significant buybacks this company is poised to break ATHs and run.”

View this Stocktwits post

Another bullish user noted, “primary industrial gas supplier for SpaceX. Boosting the supply chain near the TX base.”

View this Stocktwits post

LIN stock has risen 9% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<