Bitcoin’s $90K Test: Retail Is Divided Whether A Year-End Bounce Is Still Possible

Bitcoin’s price is down roughly 6.8% for the year, requiring a move back above $93,000 to break even on a year-to-date basis.

• Bitcoin remained below the $90,000 level on Wednesday after extending losses from its October record high above $126,000.
• A Stocktwits poll shows a wide split among retail traders, with expectations ranging from a late-year rebound to a deeper pullback below $80,000.
• Analysts have questioned whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycles still apply.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade below the $90,000 mark on Wednesday, as retail traders remain divided on whether the cryptocurrency can reclaim higher ground before the end of the year.

An ongoing poll on Stocktwits shows that nearly half of respondents expect Bitcoin’s price to finish the year between $90,000 and $100,000. About 28% believe the price will remain rangebound between $80,000 and $90,000, while roughly 22% expect Bitcoin to slide below $80,000 by December 31.

Bitcoin’s price slipped under $87,000 on Wednesday morning, down about 0.6% over the past 24 hours. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the apex cryptocurrency remained in ‘extremely bearish’ territory, amid ‘normal’ levels of chatter.

Retail Traders Split On Year-End Bitcoin Outlook

One user on the platform predicted that while Bitcoin may remain range-bound until the end of the year, it is at risk of dipping as low as $40,000 in 2026.

Another user stated that he’s hopeful that Bitcoin won’t end the year with negative returns. 

Bitcoin Faces Pressure After Record October High

Bitcoin is down about 6.8% so far this year after reaching a record high above $126,000 in October. To break even on the year, the price would need to recover to roughly $93,300.

The pullback follows a period of heavy profit-taking after strong institutional inflows earlier in the year. Several analysts say those flows may be reshaping Bitcoin’s traditional market structure.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee recently questioned whether Bitcoin still follows the four-year halving cycle long cited by market veterans. He pointed to heavy selling by long-term holders and argued that past timing patterns may no longer apply.

“If Bitcoin makes a new high in January, there’s no four-year cycle,” he said. “If Bitcoin closes above 126,000 – there’s no four-year cycle.”He noted that other markets once governed by reliable timing patterns, such as ISM manufacturing data, copper, and gold, have also broken away from old rhythms.

Analysts Debate Cycles

Morgan Stanley strategists have struck a more cautious tone. In a recent podcast, Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Bitcoin’s historical price behavior follows a three-up, one-down pattern.

“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said, describing the period as a phase for harvesting gains rather than aggressive accumulation. The key uncertainty, he added, is how long the current downturn lasts before the next cycle begins.

That view contrasts with analysts such as Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom, who has argued that favorable monetary conditions make a prolonged bear market unlikely, challenging the relevance of Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycles.

Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao echoed that sentiment earlier this month, saying Bitcoin could be entering a “super cycle.” Speaking at the Bitcoin MENA conference, Zhao said President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and growing institutional participation have made the current phase distinct from previous cycles.

“We’re bridging the gap between crypto being a grassroots movement and Wall Street participation,” Zhao said. “And Wall Street is the largest institutional market in the world.”

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