Bitcoin Investors Who Bought Last Year's Rally Are Selling As Price Nears Their Break-Even, Glassnode Says

Analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin needed a weekly close above $87,500 for a strong rally, and risks a drop below $80,000 without one.

• Glassnode said on Saturday that Bitcoin investors who bought last year's rally were selling more coins per day than at any other point this year.
• Buyers from one to two years ago have an average cost basis near $97,000, and those from six to 12 months ago near $89,000, leaving both groups holding at a loss.
• Holders who bought during the decline are not selling, which concentrates the supply in one group rather than across the holder base.

As Bitcoin struggled to break past $85,000 on Saturday, investors who bought into the apex cryptocurrency during last year's rally were selling more coins per day than at any other point this year, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

On X, Glassnode grouped holders by when they bought and calculated each group's average cost. That figure, known as a cost basis, marked the price at which a set of buyers breaks even. Two of those groups were below that line. 

The firm said buyers from one to two years ago held an average cost basis of about $97,000, and buyers from six to 12 months ago held one of about $89,000. Both cohorts were underwater, according to Glassnode.

Bitcoin's price was around $84,673 at the time of writing. At that price, the six-to-12-month group needs a gain of roughly 5% to reach break-even, and the one-to-two-year group needs nearly 15%. 

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC moved to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it shifted to ‘normal’ from ‘low’ levels over the past day. 

2025 Bitcoin Buyers Drive Selling Pressure As Other Holders Stay Put

Both groups were holding at a loss. Bitcoin was worth less now than they paid for it, so selling today meant taking that loss. Holders in that position often wait for the price to climb back to what they paid, and then sell. That way they get out without losing money. Each cost basis becomes a level where selling tends to pick up.

Glassnode's chart marked two points where Bitcoin approached those lines and turned lower. The firm labeled both "Rejected" on the chart but did not expand on them in the post. The chart measured selling as the volume of Bitcoin moved from one entity to another each day, on a seven-day average. Glassnode said the 2025-rally buyers were now moving the most coins per day of any point this year.

However, not every cohort was selling. Glassnode said holders who bought during the decline were not moving their coins. That difference narrowed where the supply was coming from. On the firm's reading, the selling was concentrated in one group of buyers rather than spread across the holder base.

A Weekly Close Is The Test

Analyst Ted Pillows set out the near-term level. He said “Bitcoin tapped the $87,000 zone” and then reversed its entire gain. Pillows said a strong rally required a weekly close above $87,500.

A weekly close was the final price of the trading week rather than an intraday high. If that close did not happen, Pillows said there was a decent chance of a correction below $80,000. That level sat below both cost-basis figures Glassnode cited.

A Firmer Relative Picture

Previously, Glassnode explained that Bitcoin's relative strength was back, with its win rate against the S&P 500 (SPX) moving above 50% last week. The win rate measured the share of trading days on which Bitcoin outperformed the index. 

Glassnode said Bitcoin beat the index on only a fifth of trading days in June, which was the weakest stretch in six years. The firm said the recovery came with stocks flat, which pointed to a bid for Bitcoin itself.

Analyst Willy Woo made a longer-dated case, saying that Bitcoin had never been beaten by stocks over a four-year investment period, even for a buyer who entered at a top. He put Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate at 42% against 19% for the S&P 500.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<