Bitcoin Drops To $103,000 – Morgan Stanley Analysts Warn Of ‘Fall Season’ In Four-Year Cycle

The apex cryptocurrency declined nearly 1.6% to $103,559.17 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data, while Ethereum fell 3.1% to $3,448.26 and XRP fell 2.4% to $2.39.

• “We could see a relief bounce when the government shutdown ends today. But in my opinion, the downtrend is in.” — Ted Pillows, crypto investor.
• Equities advanced once more as the U.S. shutdown neared an end.
• Morgan Stanley urges investors to take the profit ahead of crypto winter.

Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies bled again as investors shied away from digital assets despite the likely end of the government shutdown in the U.S.

The apex cryptocurrency declined nearly 1.6% to $103,559.17 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data, while Ethereum fell 3.1% to $3,448.26 and XRP fell 2.4% to $2.39. Among other tokens, BNB was down 1.9%, Solana fell over 5%, and Dogecoin fell 2.6%.

“Bitcoin faces heavy whale selling, $45B offloaded since October. Resistance at US$110,800 is key, while support sits at the 50-week SMA near $103K,” BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said.

Momentum Shifts To Equities Instead Of Cryptocurrencies

Global markets advanced once again on Wednesday on hopes that the longest government shutdown in U.S. history would end soon. The U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a slim majority, is expected to vote on a stopgap funding measure that will keep the government open until Jan. 30.

The bill already passed the Republican-controlled Senate after a handful of Democrats broke party lines to support the package. House Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed confidence that he will be able to pass the bill and send it to the President’s desk. "We're opening up our country. [It] should have never been closed," Trump said at a Veterans Day event in Arlington, Virginia.

Investors have seemingly pivoted towards equities amid key economic data, which could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. “We could see a relief bounce when the government shutdown ends today. But in my opinion, the downtrend is in,” investor Ted Pillows said.

What Are Stocktwits Users Thinking?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about Bitcoin was in the ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing.

“The market is so conditioned with these 365-day bear cycles that the money just isn’t likely to flow into crypto until sometime in 2026. Everyone is expecting to buy it at lower prices and assumes the top is in,” one user wrote.

Morgan Stanley Analysts Flag ‘Fall Season’ In Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Despite several crypto commentators stating that Bitcoin might evade its traditional four-year cycle, Morgan Stanley strategists warned that the market has entered the “fall season.” In a podcast episode titled "Crypto Goes Mainstream," Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, explained that Bitcoin's price history consistently follows a three-up, one-down pattern.

“We are in the fall season right now,” he said. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”

This was in contrast with analysts such as Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom. He wrote that Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market cycle anytime soon due to favorable monetary conditions, thereby putting an end to the argument over Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle.

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