ADA In July, Q3, And H2

July’s history says Cardano either greases the rails for a late-summer moonshot or tosses out clearance prices you’ll kick yourself for ignoring.

The following is a breakdown of how Cardano (ADA) has historically performed in the month of July, Q3 and the second half of a year. 

Cardano In July

Historical Averages

• Avg gain when green: 22.5%
• Avg loss when red: -11%
• Overall July change: 8%
• Green four of seven years (57%). Basically a coin flip with attitude.
• Fifth-best month on ADA’s sheet.

ADA In Q3 - The “Maybe” Quarter

• Overall average: -5%
• Avg gain when green: 37.5%
• Avg loss when red: -22.5%
• Green 2 of 7 (29%). Vegas wouldn’t price that kindly.
• Best: 2021 (+53%) - smart-contract euphoria.
• Worst: 2019 (-52.5%) - the post-ICO hangover.

Pattern check: July is not your Q3 crystal ball. Only 3 of 7 times did July’s color match the rest of the quarter. Read the tea leaves at your own risk.

ADA In The Second Half

• Overall average: 22.5%
• Avg gain when green: 113%
• Avg loss when red: -45.5%
• Green 3 of 7 halves (43%). When it runs, it sprints. When it trips, face meets pavement with road rash that lasts your whole life.
• Best: 2020 (+118.5%) - the year ADA decided to matter.
• Runner-up: 2024 (+115.5%) - staking frenzy kept the party alive.
• Worst: 2018 (-70.5%) - meltdown season, nothing survived.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

July has never gone back-to-back red. History leans bullish after a bloody one.

Biggest July pops (2020, 2022) came right before protocol milestones. Dev roadmaps move markets.

July’s mild reds (2021, 2024) still led to triple-digit H2 rallies. Don’t rage-quit too early.

Practical Takeaways

Watch July’s close. It sets vibes, not guarantees.

Big green July? Trail your stops - Q3 might still rug you. Or hug you. Or rug you. 

Nasty red July? Hunt discounts. H2 comebacks have been brutal… in a good way.

Upgrade radar: Shelley, Vasil, Chang - tech milestones juice the month. Stay tuned to GitHub, not X drama.

Cardano’s historical data range for this analysis, January 2018 - June, 2025.<

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