XRP In July, Q3, And H2

July’s history says XRP either sparks a late-summer rip or throws clearance prices you’ll curse yourself for missing.

The following is a breakdown of how XRP (XRP) has historically performed in the month of July, Q3 and the second half of a year. 

XRP In July

Historical Averages

• Avg increase when green: 29%
• Avg decrease when red: -18%
• Overall July change: 5.5%
• Five green out of ten (50% win rate). Upside hits harder than the downside, but the downside still stings.
• Eighth-best month on XRP’s sheet.

XRP In Q3 - “Mostly Green, Occasionally Gutting”

• Overall average: 16.5%
• Avg gain when green: 33%
• Avg loss when red: -50.5%
• Win rate: 8 of 10 quarters (80%) land green.
• Best Q3: 2022 (+47%) - Hinman e-mails dropped.
• Worst Q3: 2015 (-61.5%) - nobody left to sell, but they sold anyway.
• Signal: July’s color matched Q3’s color seven out of ten times. Decent tell, but not the greatest.

XRP In The Second Half

• Overall average: 119%
• Avg gain when green: 187.5%
• Avg loss when red: -41.5%
• Win rate: 7 of 10 halves (70%) finish green.
• Best H2: 2017 (+760%) - retail mania met kimchi premium.
• Worst H2: 2019 (-62%) - escrow jokes everywhere.

Stuff You Didn’t Know

Five-year green streak: 2020-2024.

Red-run omen: The 2015-2019 string of red Julys preceded every capitulation low of that cycle. Pain before gain.

Volatility skew: Average green July is 1.6× bigger than the average red move- upside dominates, downside is quicker.

June hangover trick: A brutal June (-15% or worse) has historically doubled July’s bounce (see 2018 and 2020). Watch the warm-up.

Practical Takeaways

Mind July’s close. Green July tilts Q3 bullish 70% of the time.

Red July? Expect chop, shop discounts, and keep one eye on November’s magic.

Ride the wave, trail stops. Average green H2 melts faces; missing that hurts more than eating a -18% July.

July, broadly speaking, is one of the months traders refer to as 'the doldrums of trading'. This means price action can often feel stuck or disconnected, but that's not just for XRP, it's something all assets experience as people spend more time outside and with families during warmer weather. 

XRP’s historical data range for this analysis, February 2015 - June, 2025.<

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