Asianet News poll predicted Yogi Adityanath's return to power in Uttar Pradesh

By Team Newsable | First Published Mar 10, 2022, 3:52 PM IST

Seven months before Uttar Pradesh went to polls – in August 2021 - Asianet News-Jan Ki Baat Mood of Voters survey had predicted the return of Yogi Adityanath as the chief minister for a second term.

Seven months before Uttar Pradesh went to polls – in August 2021 - Asianet News-Jan Ki Baat Mood of Voters survey had predicted the return of Yogi Adityanath as the chief minister for a second term.

In what was the first opinion poll by a media outlet in the country, it clearly read the wave and predicted a comfortable win for BJP in Uttar Pradesh and that 51 per cent of voters wanted Yogi as the next chief minister.

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Our extensive survey was done in UP's six regions of Kanpur Bundelkhand Awadh, West, Brij, Kashi and Goraksh. The survey predicted that the BJP would get 222-260 seats with a 42 per cent vote share, while SP would win 135 seats. The current leads show BJP ahead in 244 seats and win on three seats.

Seven Months Ago: Asianet News Mood of the Voters survey: Yogi Adityanath's report card

The fact that the BSP would end up in a single-digit was also called. We said four seats, current trends show the party is leading in six seats.

Similarly, the pathetic plight of Congress was also predicted by Asianet News. Like in the case of BSP, our survey found that Congress would also be a single-digit party likely to win only seven seats. The leads show the grand old party is ahead in just three seats.

Our survey found that Akhilesh was preferred by 38 per cent of voters, Mayawati was wanted by only eight per cent. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s support base was even lower, with just two per cent of voters supporting her.

Asianet News survey was the first to state that all roadshows and anti-Modi rhetoric by the siblings of the first family would have little impact on voters' minds. BJP's win in Lakhimpur Kheri attests to the reality that voters' concerns were much larger than acknowledging political discourse.

Also Read: Yogi Adityanath defeats 'Noida jinx' as BJP set for big win in UP

The survey found a majority of 20,000 respondents preferred giving a second term to Yogi Adityanath. Their stamp of approval was based simply on two achievements: Curb on graft and streamlining of rule of law.

Of course, the promise kept on the construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya also seems to have played a big catalyst in ensuring Yogi chemistry in UP.

However, a huge majority of respondents -- mainly in West, Awadh and Kanpur Bundelkhand -- totally agreed that corruption was in control but much more was needed. The narrative, in general, was 'Yogi is honest, but officers are corrupt'.

We found that along with these achievements, people also preferred Yogi Adityanath for his handling of the Covid situation. Most of the people who spoke to our team were 'more than satisfied with strategies adopted to handle covid situations'.

Again there was no sycophancy as people were quite bitter at the poor control on prices. However, the results show that there is a realisation that inflation was not a UP-specific phenomenon alone.

Though the Farm Bill and eventual agitations were much discussed, the survey found that it impacted, if at all, mostly in the western UP only. But the mindset seems to have changed with the scrapping of the Farm Bill.

Interestingly, we were told by more than 50 per cent that they had not read or understood the Farm Bill. And, interestingly, about 60 per cent had no opinion to offer on the Bill. Asianet News had underscored in bold that Farm Bill would cease to be an issue by the time of elections.

Though the Opposition raised the issue of the Electricity Bill about 70 per cent had stated that they were not impacted by it.

We studied the crucial issue of caste inclination of Brahmins and found that 36 per cent in Kanpur Bundelkhand said they were undecided but the rest of the areas showed a clear BJP slant. On the inclination of Jatav SC and non-Jatav SC, respondents were split but with a definite tilt towards BJP.

What went in favour of the BJP was also the manner in which tickets were distributed. Asianet News had predicted that the caste balance, ensuring high polling of non-Yadav OBC would make the swing favourable for Yogi Adityanath.

Our respondents also highlighted the importance of fielding new faces to incumbent members. We had said that too -- seven months ago -- that household inflation would be a key issue but the concern might be eclipsed by strides made in the law and order sector. And the numbers attest to the credibility of our brand.

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