IMD predicts below-normal rainfall for July 2026 across most of India

The IMD has predicted that the monthly average rainfall for July 2026 is likely to be below normal for the country. However, some areas in Northwest, Northeast, and peninsular India may receive normal to above-normal rain. Monsoon is delayed in Himachal.

Monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2026 is most likely to be below normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. According to an IMD press release, the long-period average (LPA) of rainfall over the country as a whole during July, based on data from 1971-2020, may be about 280.4 mm. Regionally, below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country except some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, Eastcentral India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

Climatic Conditions

Currently, weak El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed over the Indian Ocean. The model forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist during the Southwest Monsoon season.

Monsoon Arrives in Himachal Pradesh

Meanwhile, senior IMD scientist Sandeep Kumar Sharma confirmed that the Southwest Monsoon made its way to Himachal Pradesh today, nearly a week behind its usual schedule, as per India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s data. Speaking to ANI, Sharma shared, "Today, June 30th, the monsoon has arrived in certain areas of Himachal Pradesh, covered whole Kinnaur district, made its presence felt in many parts of Kullu and Lahaul-Spiti. It has also arrived in parts of Sirmaur district... and areas around Shimla district... There is a possibility that within the next 2-3 days, the monsoon will arrive in the remaining areas such as parts of Kangra and Chamba districts... there is a delay of about a week in monsoon's arrival in the state."

IMD had issued the first stage forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country on April 13 and updated the forecast on May 29. (ANI)

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