How is Nitish's 'Ghar Wapsi' a victory ticket for BJP In The 2019 General Elections

Nitish Kumar seemed to have been throwing subtle hints of his inclination toward BJP. Backing Kovind as the Presidential candidate, supporting Modi's demonetisation move and liquor ban, all indicated the impending change in the dynamics of Bihar politics. With JDU's support, BJP too will have 10 more members in the Upper House, strengthening its stand in the Parliament.

Why is it that JDU leader and chief minister Nitish Kumar's move to dump the 'Grand Alliance' did not come as a surprise? The subtle hints that the leader was throwing at his rivals and the opposition certainly did not go unnoticed. Firstly, his backing for the NDA-presidential nominee Ram Nath Kovind, despite opposition from his alliances; Secondly, his visit to Narendra Modi's office to discuss Kovind's candidature, skipping the alliance meeting; His backing for Narendra Modi during demonetisation and the campaign against liquor, suggested just one outcome. His inclination toward the NDA could surely read as a political strategy to be with the powerful and the stable. And, the corruption charges against Tejaswi Yadav became the final trigger. 

Nitish had to keep his image clean, as he has always managed to do so and he wanted stability in his party, which could secure him a seat during Bihar's polls. NDA, too found its ticket to win to the general elections in 2019. BJP was having a difficult time combating the caste politics in Bihar, which is ruled by the Yadavs and the Muslims, all loyal to Lalu Prasad Yadav.  However what drew Nitish to the Grand Alliance was not reason enough to hold him back. He now had the backing of BJP's 53 MLA backing, apart from its own 71, which will ensure his victory with the magic number-122 in the Bihar assembly. 

Moreover, with BJP-leader Sushil Kumar Modi sworn in as the Deputy CM and the party-sharing partnership, it is likely that JD(U) leaders may also find position in the central government too.

What does it mean for the NDA?

NDA has a bigger picture in mind when it took Nitish Kumar under its wings. BJP's dreams of acquiring power in Bihar in 2015 were crashed in 2015 when the Grand alliance ousted BJP. But now the tables have turned. With Nitish BJP will gain a strong foothold in the state, which, in turn, will strengthen the NDA's position in the Rajya Sabha. 

Although NDA has a majority government in the Center, it is still weak in the upper house. But with JD(U)'s homecoming, the party will now have 10 more members in the Rajya Sabha, taking its number to 84. 

Bihar's caste politics may change its course

Nitish Kumar always had the backing of extremely backward classes who, over time, became his loyalists until the time JDU experienced a fallout in the 1990s. Incidentally, these very communities joined hands with the BJP, although for a short time when they moved back to the Mahagathmbandhan in 2015. Experts believe that the backward loyalists will continue to stay with Nitish Kumar and more so with the BJP because of the latter's decision to back a Dalit as a presidential-elect. 

NDA-JDU alliance may finally win the hearts of extremely backward classes 

The EBCs or a cluster of 114 castes in Bihar were very unhappy with the Mahagathbandhan. A leader belonging to this community and placed in the Nitish government criticised Nitish for ignoring their plight as EBCs, a status that was assigned to them under the Lalu government. This cluster of 114 castes has 85 or 86 Hindu communities and 29 or 30 Muslim communities. They are not dominant in any region, but are scatetred across the state and account for at least a fourth of the population. Among them, the most vocal caste is the mallah-nishad or the fisherfolk. Expressing his disappointment at Nitish Kumar when he joined the gathbandhan was a nishad leader who said, "The nishad community was right up there, when Nitish Kumar gave a call for the empowerment of the EBC in his first term. We stayed with him through 2010 when he started his second term. But, after that, upper castes began to dominate, politically but even more important, in the administration."

With the recent turn of events, Nitish may finally garner the confidence of this community, which in turn with help the NDA government in winning the 2019 elections by a huge margin. 
[Read: From Gathbandhan To Ghar Wapsi: Nitish's 8-Hour Journey To Form A New Government]