Exit Polls Predict BJP Hat-Trick in Assam, Advantage In Bengal; DMK to Retain TN, UDF Favoured in Kerala

Exit polls suggest a BJP sweep in Assam, a tight and conflicting battle in West Bengal, DMK likely retaining Tamil Nadu, and a possible UDF comeback in Kerala. Puducherry may see NDA return. All eyes now on May 4 counting day.

India’s high-stakes Assembly elections across five key regions have thrown up a complex and often conflicting picture, with exit polls suggesting decisive victories in some states and razor-edge contests in others. While the BJP appears set for a strong showing in Assam and possibly West Bengal, Tamil Nadu remains too close to call in some projections, with actor-turned-politician Vijay emerging as a potential disruptor.

Across most forecasts, the DMK looks poised to return in Tamil Nadu, while Kerala could witness a comeback by the Congress-led UDF after a decade. Puducherry, meanwhile, is expected to stay with the NDA.

West Bengal: BJP Edge or TMC Surge? Pollsters Divided

West Bengal has emerged as the most hotly contested battleground, with exit polls sharply split between a BJP victory and a sweeping win for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.

Two pollsters — People's Pulse and Janmat — have predicted a dominant TMC performance. People's Pulse projected 177-187 seats for TMC, BJP 95-110, Left Front 0-1 and the Congress 1-3. Similarly, Janmat forecast 195-205 for the TMC and 80-90 for the BJP plus and 1-3 for the Congress.

However, several others indicate a BJP edge. Matrize estimated 146-161 seats for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC, while P-Marq projected 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 for the TMC.

Poll Diary gave 142-171 seats to the BJP, 99-127 to the TMC and 3-5 to the Congress, while Praja Poll predicted a landslide, forecasting 178-208 seats for the BJP and 85-110 for the TMC.

With 294 seats in total and a majority mark of 148, Bengal remains too close to call definitively.

Tamil Nadu: Hung Assembly Fears as Vijay’s TVK Makes Impact

Tamil Nadu could deliver the biggest surprise of this election cycle. While many polls project a DMK-led alliance victory, two major pollsters have predicted a hung Assembly — with Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) playing spoiler.

Axis My India forecast 92-110 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 22-23 for the AIADMK plus and 98-120 for the TVK. Kamakhya Analytics offered a similar fragmented picture with 78-95 for DMK plus, 68-84 for AIADMK plus and 67-81 for TVK.

That said, several polls still point to a comfortable DMK win. People's Pulse projected 125-145 for DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for AIADMK-BJP and 18-24 for TVK. Matrize estimated 122-132 for DMK-Congress, 87-100 for AIADMK plus and 10-12 for TVK, while P-Marq predicted 125-145 for DMK plus, 65-85 for AIADMK and 16-26 for TVK.

JVC stood out as the only pollster predicting an AIADMK victory, giving it 128-147 seats, with 75-95 for DMK plus and 18-15 for TVK.

Praja Poll forecast 148-168 for DMK plus, 61-81 for AIADMK and 1-9 for TVK, while Peoples Insight estimated 120-140 for DMK plus, 60-70 for AIADMK and 30-40 for TVK.

Tamil Nadu has 234 seats, with the majority mark set at 118.

Assam: BJP Set for Comfortable Victory

In Assam, the trend across almost all exit polls is clear — a decisive win for the BJP-led NDA.

Axis My India predicted a sweep, projecting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 for the Congress and its partners. People's Pulse forecast 68-72 for NDA and 22-26 for Congress plus, while Matrize estimated 85-95 for NDA and 25-32 for the opposition.

JVC projected 88-101 for BJP plus and 23-33 for Congress allies, while Kamakhya Analytics predicted 85-95 for NDA and 26-39 for Congress. Peoples Insight estimated 88-96 for NDA and 30-34 for Congress, and Poll Diary gave 86-101 for NDA and 15-26 for Congress plus.

With 126 seats in the Assembly and a majority mark of 64, the BJP appears comfortably ahead.

Kerala: UDF Eyes Comeback After a Decade

Kerala’s political landscape could see a shift, with most exit polls indicating a return of the Congress-led UDF.

Axis My India projected 78-90 seats for UDF, 49-62 for LDF and 0-3 for NDA. People's Pulse predicted 75-85 for UDF, 55-65 for LDF and 0-3 for NDA.

Matrize offered a tighter race, forecasting 70-75 for UDF, 60-65 for LDF and 3-5 for NDA. Peoples Insight predicted 66-76 for UDF, 58-68 for LDF and 10-14 for NDA, while Vote Vibe estimated 70-80 for UDF, 58-68 for LDF and zero for NDA.

The Kerala Assembly has 140 seats, with the majority mark at 71.

Puducherry: NDA Likely to Retain Power

In Puducherry, most projections suggest continuity, with the NDA — led by the All India N R Congress (AINRC) — expected to retain power.

Axis My India forecast 16-20 seats for NDA and 6-8 for DMK-Congress, while also projecting 2-4 seats for TVK. Kamakhya Analytics estimated 17-24 for AINRC plus, 4-7 for Congress plus and 1-2 for TVK.

People's Pulse predicted 16-19 for AINRC plus and 10-12 for Congress plus, while Praja Poll forecast 19-25 for AINRC and 6-10 for Congress plus.

The Assembly has 30 elected seats.

A Word of Caution on Exit Polls

While the numbers offer a glimpse into possible outcomes, exit polls in India have often produced mixed results in the past. Several pollsters have been off the mark, and variations between agencies this time underline that uncertainty.

Notably, some projections — including Axis My India’s detailed West Bengal forecast — are still awaited and will be released later.

What Happens Next

The counting of votes for all five assemblies — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam — is scheduled for May 4.

Polling was conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, while West Bengal saw a two-phase election on April 23 and 29. Earlier, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry voted on April 9, with Tamil Nadu going to polls on April 23.

The Stakes

The BJP is aiming to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it governs in alliance with the AINRC. The Congress, meanwhile, is looking to regain ground in both regions.

In Kerala, the UDF is attempting to unseat the incumbent LDF government. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is trying to hold on against a resurgent AIADMK-BJP combine and the wildcard entry of TVK.

And in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee faces what could be her toughest challenge yet as the BJP pushes hard to break through.

With such varied signals from exit polls, the final verdict on May 4 is shaping up to be anything but predictable.