Assassination attempts & political fortunes: Trump's rising popularity after attack and the Indira precedent
By Girish Linganna | First Published Jul 15, 2024, 10:05 PM ISTAlthough the bid on Trump’s life failed, a former fire chief at the rally was killed and two persons were grievously injured. The Secret Service located the shooter within minutes and shot him dead. It is uncertain how this incident will impact Trump’s campaign.
Former US President Donald Trump had a close call when a shooter fired at his election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday (July 13). Trump suffered a minor injury to his right ear and was seen holding his bleeding ear as Secret Service agents quickly surrounded him and led him off the stage. The incident occurred just six minutes into his speech when chaos broke out and the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, fired several shots from a nearby rooftop.
Although the bid on Trump’s life failed, a former fire chief at the rally was killed and two persons were grievously injured. The Secret Service located the shooter within minutes and shot him dead. It is uncertain how this incident will impact Trump’s campaign. But, based on past precedents, it could, possibly, boost his popularity. After the apparent shooting at his campaign rally, a photo of a bloodied Trump raising his fist to the crowd went viral on social media. Supporters praised his defiance in the image.
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Assassination attempts on popular leaders have historically tended to increase their public support. After being shot in the leg at a political rally, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan gained more support for his party. The public began to see him as a lone figure fighting against a corrupt establishment.
§ Brazilian far-Right candidate in the 2018 presidential elections, Jair Bolsonaro, was stabbed in the stomach during his poll campaign. Following the attack, he won the elections, bolstered by voters who viewed him as having survived an assassination attempt by their ideological opponents
§ President Ronald Reagan also gained public sympathy and support after an assassination attempt. This support helped him implement several controversial economic policies that shaped the country for decades
§ In the General Elections following Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984, her son, Rajiv, won a landslide victory, with his party, the Indian National Congress, winning 404 of the total 514 seats in the Lok Sabha
Scholars have noted a rise in political assassinations in recent years, with several attempts—both failed and successful—targeting officials in the US and abroad. After the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in 2022, the national security publication, ‘War on the Rocks’, suggested that ‘accelerationists’ aiming to create social conflict by destabilizing political institutions could be behind the increase in attacks, according to a report by Intercept.
Accelerationists justify their belief by arguing that existing political and social systems are fundamentally flawed or corrupt. They think that gradual reform is ineffective and that only through significant disruption can true change occur. By destabilizing institutions, they believe they can expose weaknesses, provoke a crisis and force society to rebuild in a better, more just way.
Young Kitchen Worker Crooks
The small suburb of Bethel Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is in shock after the FBI identified local young man Crooks as the shooter who fired at Trump during the campaign rally. Investigators say Crooks, armed with a semi-automatic AR-15 rifle, opened fire on the former president while he was speaking to a crowd in Butler, Pennsylvania. The 20-year-old kitchen worker was shot dead at the scene by a Secret Service sniper, according to officials. In his affluent hometown, neighbours are shocked and struggling to understand how a quiet, young man could be involved in such a violent act. The FBI confirmed that an intense probe was on.
With Crooks's identity confirmed, the police and security agencies are continuing their investigation. The world is waiting for more details about what happened in Butler on Saturday and what the motive behind the attack was. Speculation is also rife on what this incident means for Trump’s popularity and the 2024 presidential election.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
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